Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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123 FXUS64 KLCH 081732 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1232 PM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1035 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 TC Beryl was downgraded to a high end tropical storm as of the 10 AM advisory...regional 88Ds show the center of the system west of Houston at this time. KBPT has gusted to 53 knots while KORG has gusted 35 knots...thus no changes were made to inherited TS Warning. Outer rain bands continue streaming over mainly our TX zones this morning...expect these to expand ewd, along with additional more diurnally-driven convection, through the course of the afternoon. The tornado threat associated with the storm will also continue as Beryl inches nwd...and a new tornado watch was issued for the wrn 1/2 of the forecast area through 22L/03z to account. All associated public products have been issued for these hazards, including the going Flood Watch. Otherwise no changes to inherited grids/zones. 25 && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 502 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Persistent showers and storms will continue as Beryls bands move across the area. 24h radar estimated rainfall maximums are in the 3- 5 inch range, with those higher totals in southern Jefferson Co and Cameron Par. Forecast PWATs today are well over the 90th percentile, with some near their daily max. As of 4AM, Beryl made landfall near Matagorda as a category 1 hurricane with sustained wind speeds near 80 MPH. It will continue to weaken as it moves inland, however we will still have impacts in our area. Specifically focusing on "inland" impacts, we currently have a Storm Surge Warning and Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Lower Jefferson and a Tropical Storm Warning in effect for Hardin, Tyler, and Upper Jefferson. Then we have a Coastal Flood Warning in effect for Cameron and a Coastal Flood Advisory for Southern Orange, Southern Calcasieu, Lower Vermilion, Lower Iberia and Lower St. Mary. There is a Flood Watch in effect for all of our SETX Counties. Lastly, as the environment is conducive for tornadoes, we do have a Tornado Watch in effect for Hardin and Jefferson. Additional rainfall amounts over the next 3 days will be in the 2-4 inch range, however for SETX most of that is expected today with trace amounts days 2&3. Then for parts of coastal LA, those higher totals are expected over today and tomorrow. It is certainly worth noting that locally higher amounts will be possible. As a result, today parts of SETX are in a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall with a Slight to Marginal Risk area east of there. Tomorrow Beryl will be over the ArkLaTx with bands expected to set up / train along coastal Louisiana. We are highlighted in a day 2 Slight Risk ERO as a result. Thanks to rain and overcast skies, highs today will be much cooler in the low to mid 80s across SETX and parts of west central to southwestern Louisiana. Unfortunately they will be a bit warmer in the lower 90s across parts of central to south central Louisiana. With that and higher dewpoints, it would not be out of the realm of possibility to see near or above Heat Advisory criteria. Even with Beryl moving off as an extratropical low going into the latter half of the period, some moisture will still stick around. As a result, the area can look forward to showers and storms mainly in the afternoon to evening timeframe. Tomorrow and Wednesday temps will be in the low to mid 90s across the entire area with lows in the 70s. A weak frontal boundary will help in limiting higher dewpoints during that time, with no heat hazards expected. Stigger/87 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 502 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 A weakness will persist over the region south of a midlevel trough extending from the central CONUS into the Great Lakes. The trough will gradually lift northeast by the weekend, with ridging over the SE coast building west across the Gulf coast. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be mainly diurnally driven through the period, with greater coverage expected Thursday and Friday before becoming more scattered by the weekend. PWATs, while still somewhat elevated, are not expected to be as extreme as they were prior to and during Beryl`s landfall. Still, with values hovering between roughly 1.7 and 2.1 inches, locally heavy rainfall and flooding will be possible in some locations. High temperatures along and south of I-10 will be near 90 or into the lower 90s Thursday and Friday when shower coverage is expected to be higher. Further north, highs are expected to reach the middle 90s. By the weekend and into early next week, daytime temperatures will gradually increase as ridging aloft builds, with highs reaching the middle to upper 90s. A return to Heat Advisory headlines could be in the works by Sunday and Monday as maximum heat index readings are forecast to reach 108 to 112 degrees in a few locations. 24 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Beryl centered around 45 miles nnw of Houston continues to move north northeast around 13 mph. Several rainbands streaming north will cause tropical storm conditions at BPT, recently gusting to 49 kts. Expect the LIFR visibility/ceilings and gusty winds within the rainbands, with some improvement outside the rainband. Similiar conditions expected at LCH, except slightly lower winds. Further east at AEX/LFT/ARA, expect southeast to south winds around 15-20 kts with gusts near 30 kts possible within the rainbands. Improvement expected overnight into Tuesday. 08/DML && .MARINE... Issued at 502 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 Beryl has officially made landfall this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected today over Sabine Lake and Sabine Pass, Texas and adjacent coastal waters westward, with Small Craft Advisories further east. As Beryl moves further inland, winds and seas will gradually subside going into tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 74 91 70 92 / 70 40 10 20 LCH 76 90 75 91 / 70 60 30 50 LFT 79 92 77 93 / 60 80 30 50 BPT 74 92 74 93 / 60 50 30 50 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...Coastal Flood Warning until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ073-074. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ241-252>254. TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ180-201-515-615. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ616. Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ180-201-259>262-515- 516-615-616. GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ430-450-470. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Tuesday for GMZ432-452-455- 472-475. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM....08 AVIATION...08