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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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310 FXUS64 KLCH 150830 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 330 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Locally, broad high pressure remains over the southern CONUS with modest ridging extending over the western Atlantic to the FL Peninsula. Seasonably warm temperatures will continue over the next few days to complete the short term while under a light variable southerly flow. Further to this, the present regime will allow the marine boundary layer to extend over the I-10 corridor, while more interior counties and parishes remain roughly 3-6F warmer trending north into central LA and Eastern Tx. SFC high pressure ridging is forecast to become slack by ahead of an upstream trough deepening eastward across the Southern Plains. The start of the work week will remain generally on the lower end for POPS with drier air being entrained into portions of the lower troposphere from central Tx. Therefore, most favorable region for isolated showers and storms will remain toward the lower Acadiana region with slight chances to carry west along the I-10 corridor into eastern Tx with mainly Seabreeze driven convection during the mid-late afternoon hours. Apart from any isolated storms, highs will still reach across the spectrum of 90s from the coast to the central portions of LA. While diurnal maximums of dewpoints keep us out of advisory criteria, it should be noted both Monday and Tuesday will still have several locations approach or briefly breach Heat Indices of a 100F. By Wednesday an upper level low stalled over central Tx will consolidate and strengthen. Thus, throughout the day upper level divergence will begin to increase with some signals of weak perturbations aloft. Some guidance is a little more egregious to bring the deeper 1000-500mb layer of elevated RH into south portion of SETX and SWLA by midday, however, much of the more favorable instability continues to trend above 3km AGL, meaning that activity may be capped for most locations. However, by the evening hours, the aforementioned upper level low and developing surface trough to the further north begin to exhibit more baroclinic components over the area creating the potential for scattered activity over a greater area of coverage to occur during the evening and overnight hours into Thursday. Kowalski / 30 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A weakness aloft will be in place over the region as we begin the long term period. An upper level trough rounding the upper level ridge over the Mountain West will help push a surface front into the forecast area on Thursday, with the front stalling out along the I- 10 corridor on Friday, with the frontal boundary waffling around the forecast area through the weekend. A very moist and unstable air mass will be in place ahead of the frontal system and therefore, widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is expected for the end of the week into the weekend. PWAT values on Thursday are progged to be between 2.0 and 2.25 inches, with Mean Relative Humidity values over 70 percent, with PWAT values over 2.25 inches and Mean Relative Humidity values over 80 percent for Friday. The PWAT values are near or above the 90th percentile of SPC daily climo for Thursday and Friday. Relatively light mid level winds will bring about slow storm motions with the probability for mesoscale boundary collisions and cell mergers. Therefore, some locally heavy rainfall will be possible and WPC has outlined the northern portion of the forecast area on Thursday, and the entire forecast area on Friday, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) for Excessive Rainfall that may lead to flash flooding. PWAT values lower some over the weekend, and closer to 2 inches which is at the 75th percentile of SPC climo. With the expected cloud cover and widespread convection, to go along with some lower dew points, daytime heat temperatures will be a little below climo norms, with max heat index readings kept in check around 100 degrees or lower for Friday into the weekend. 07/Rua && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions to prevail for most of the forecast period. Light and variable winds to be light and southerly to calm for the rest of the night and into tomorrow morning. Isolated showers and storms are possible tomorrow afternoon and evening. Stigger/87 && .MARINE... Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Winds remain light and onshore with calm seas (1 to 3 ft). These condition will continue through the middle of next week. Each afternoon showers and thunderstorms will from creating locally hazardous conditions for mariner with gusty winds and higher seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 96 73 97 74 / 20 10 10 0 LCH 93 78 92 78 / 30 10 30 10 LFT 94 78 94 79 / 40 10 50 10 BPT 92 76 93 77 / 20 10 20 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...30