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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA
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421 FXUS64 KLCH 200357 AFDLCH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 1057 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1004 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Weak frontal boundary continues to sag south across the southern LA coast. KLCH radar depicts this boundary nicely, with a line of scattered to numerous showers and storms from near Sabine Pass east toward Marsh Island. This activity will continue to slide southward overnight, eventually stalling and expanding in coverage slightly before spreading back inland during the day Saturday. Conditions should stay fairly quiet overnight for inland areas, as slightly drier midlevel air has nudged southward into the region in the wake of the front. KLCH 00Z sounding shows PWAT down to 1.8 inches after peaking at almost 2.5 inches at 12Z. Despite this "front", temperatures are expected to stay close to seasonal normals tonight with lows in the lower to middle 70s. Overall, the current forecast is in good shape, but did make some slight adjustments to hourly PoP/Wx, T and Td grids to account for recent obs and expected trends. No updates were needed to text products. 24 && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Mid-afternoon sfc analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary draped over the forecast area, with an area of low pressure spinning near the far nern zones. Water vapor imagery shows the region remaining under a weakness aloft. Regional 12z soundings showed plenty of moisture (KLCH PWAT was a ridiculous 2.49 inches) and nil capping. In response, we saw an area of showers and thunderstorms develop and push ewd across the area earlier today...88D imagery shows this activity now east of the Atchafalaya although widely scattered convection is beginning to re-fire across mainly ern portions of the area in response to the low. Expecting this new round of convection to continue developing through the afternoon, especially over the nern zones, before waning with loss of heating. However another round of late night redevelopment looks on tap courtesy of our typical nocturnal maritime activity developing and spreading inland. Thereafter the combination of the lingering weakness aloft, the meandering sfc boundary and persistent very deep moisture will maintain elevated rain chances through tomorrow. Forecast soundings indicate mean RH values around 70 percent and PWAT values generally between 1.9 and 2.1 inches into Saturday night (around the 90th percentile per SPC raob climo). WPC is maintaining the previous highlights of a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for the forecast area. The sfc boundary looks to wash out/move out of the area on Sunday. However the weakness will remain aloft, and a deeper srly flow is progged to develop which will increase PWAT values in excess of 2.0 inches area-wide. Along with daytime heating, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, with again a potential for torrential downpours that may bring about a localized flood risk With the widespread cloud cover/precip, heat index values are not expected to meet advisory criteria at any point during the short term. 25 && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A very wet and active work week is in store over the entire longterm period. The pattern setting up and stalling out will consist of low pressure trof sitting over the central US with surface high pressure ridging across the northeast GoM. Weakness aloft combined with a funneling of moisture off the trof and high pressure will all combine to bring about widespread showers and thunderstorms each and every day. Guidance now brings a series of easterly waves through the western periphery of the Gulf high, ushering them onshore in central Louisiana. If this solution is correct, these waves would only further enhance rainfall rates. Tropical moisture and days of heavy rainfall will start to push the limits of river and bayou storage, bringing about the possibility of rising rivers and quickly- exacerbated flash flooding scenarios. Because of this, WPC has continued the run of Marginal Risk (1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Monday thru at least Wednesday Morning. While most of us already have our rain boots and umbrellas at the ready, it`s good to prepare for the possibility of flash flooding in heavy downpours during traveling hours next week. Temperatures will be held well in check Monday through Friday with most daytime temps topping out in the mid to upper 80s. Muggy overnight conditions will fall into the low 70s inland to mid 70s along the coastline. 11 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Convection continues in the Atchafalaya basin with convection moving offshore. CAMs keep convection overnight along the coast. In the morning there will be PROB30 for coastal terminals. Overnight winds will be light and variable with a minimal fog risk except for AEX where fog will be a concern around sunrise. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Not expecting the need for any headlines on the CWF over the next several days. 25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 70 90 71 89 / 10 20 20 70 LCH 75 89 76 88 / 30 60 50 90 LFT 75 91 76 89 / 40 70 40 100 BPT 75 91 75 90 / 30 60 40 90 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...14