178
FXUS64 KLCH 152001
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
301 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

The typical summertime pattern continues today and will keep going
through the middle of the week. High pressure remains centered
offshore, with robust 594 dm heights over the central Gulf. A
second high-pressure system is located over the 4-corners region.
Overhead, weak troughing is helping to keep our atmosphere
unstable with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms. This
general pattern will continue into the work week with one slight
change. Dry air looks to filter into the region from west to
east, mainly in the low to mid levels. PoPs will be highest in the
Acadiana region with percentages around 50% while SWLA and SETX
sitting closer to 20%.

High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 90s with dew
points in the mid 70s. This combo will keep our heat index in the
triple digits each afternoon, but not high enough to reach heat
advisory levels.

Rain chances will begin to increase Wednesday and Wednesday night
as a weak boundary moves into the area. This feature will mainly
be impacting the region on Thursday, which is covered in the long
term forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Sunday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

An upper trough will be in place across the eastern sections of
the U.S. for much of the extended period. As the upper trough digs
in, a weak cold front will move toward the gulf coast and stall by
Thursday. No cooling locally is anticipated, however moisture will
pool ahead of the boundary and interact with the hot and unstable
airmass that is in place. High rain chances are anticipated.

During the weekend an upper ridge over the Atlantic will nudge west
ward while another ridge is over the western states. The area is
anticipated to remain under a shear axis between these ridges which
will keep rain chances elevated, but also keep temperatures around
normal for the date.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the majority of today with the
exception of isolated showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon. VCTS was added to the prevailing conditions until
sunset. Winds will be light and variable through the rest of
today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Winds remain light and onshore with calm seas (1 to 3 ft). These
conditions will continue through the middle of next week. Each
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will from creating locally
hazardous conditions for mariner with gusty winds and higher seas.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  95  74  96  74 /  20  10  10   0
LCH  92  78  91  78 /  40  10  30  10
LFT  95  78  95  79 /  50  10  50  10
BPT  93  77  93  77 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14