982
FXUS64 KLCH 202320
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
620 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The morning has been quiet due to the entrainment of dry air
behind a surface boundary which is now sitting over the coastline.
A few very elevated showers (iso storms) have developed inland,
marking the start of afternoon convection. Any activity should
remain fairly isolated with only heavy rain, gusty winds and
lightning being the driving concerns with storms.

High pressure starts to ridge across the northeast Gulf of Mexico
overnight as weakness develops aloft. These two features will send
northward the boundary late tonight into the morning, bringing
about the start of many rounds of widespread showers and
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Deep tropical moisture will cause
convection to be rather efficient and within the several rounds
of rain, at least urbanized flash flooding will be possible. Weak
flow means storms could park over one location and rain out,
resulting in multiple inch totals in a short period.

Rain-cooled air and cloud cover will keep temperatures in check
Sunday with highs topping out in the upper 80s to low 90s. Monday
should see more widespread rainfall due to a short wave pulse
moving through weakness aloft; temps should hover in the upper
80s.

11/Calhoun

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

The long term will continue the same wet pattern that started in the
short term as the upper disturbance stalls out. We will start off
with this disturbance over the Central CONUS, a ridge centered over
the Desert SW, and an elongated ridge centered over the Atlantic
with it extending clear west into the western GoM. Light southerly
flow will continue over the period, setting up a tap of moist
tropical air. PWATs will remain in or near the 2 inch range with
dewpoints in the 70s. Over the entire course of the long term there
will be a minimal eastward shift in the aforementioned systems. By
next weekend the upper trough will be centered east of the Great
Lakes while the Desert SW ridge spreads more into the plains. This
will eventually lead to lower PoPs near the end of the term.

Daily rain and cloud cover will keep our temperatures below normal
for most of the period until near the weekend as the western ridge
begins to build west. We will see a gradual increase in temperatures
from there.

Stigger/87

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Sporadic convection continues across the region with
thunderstorms along the I-10 corridor. The convection will die off
in the evening and overnight conditions will be VFR.

In the morning widespread convection will cause CIGs and VIS to
drop into MVFR conditions. With MVFR conditions lasting into the
day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

A stalling surface frontal boundary is expected to meander around
the region through the weekend, allowing for light and variable
winds over the next few days. Convection will also increase across
the coastal waters with the boundary in the vicinity. Into next
week, surface high ridge across the northern Gulf of Mexico that
will provide light southerly winds and low seas. However, high
chances for daily showers and thunderstorms will persist with
weakness present aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  71  89  71  87 /  20  70  40  90
LCH  75  88  75  87 /  60  80  70 100
LFT  76  89  76  88 /  60  90  60 100
BPT  75  89  75  88 /  50  80  60  90

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....87
AVIATION...14