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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE
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249 FXUS63 KLBF 090853 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 353 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warming conditions continue into late week and this weekend, with a threat for dangerous heat Saturday through Monday. - Increasing fire weather concerns are possible late week and this weekend as well, with an overlap of very warm, dry, and breezy conditions at times. - Scattered thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return early next week, though any threat for strong to severe storms remains uncertain. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 Benign weather conditions persist today and into tomorrow, as upper ridging continues to amplify across the western CONUS and heights rise aloft across the Plains. Additionally, the area remains under the influence of surface high pressure, with light winds persisting into tomorrow. Moderating temperatures continue today with no airmass changes anticipated, with highs returning to the upper 80s to low 90s. By tomorrow afternoon, a fast moving shortwave will dive south out of Canada through MN/IA, with an associated backdoor cool front sliding into central Nebraska tomorrow afternoon. Widely isolated thunderstorms will be possible near and east of HWY 281, in the vicinity of this surface boundary. Deep layer shear looks to be very limited amid weak winds aloft, and not anticipating much in the way of storm organization. Still, a brief stronger pulse storm cannot be completely ruled out, and this will need to be monitored. The more noticeable impact of the frontal boundary will be the difference in high temperatures across the area. For areas of central/north central Nebraska behind the cool front, highs should remain in the middle 80s. Further west, highs should climb into the low/mid 90s across western Nebraska. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 As we head into late week, the upper ridge axis will continue to migrate eastward towards the Plains, with flow aloft transitioning north-northwesterly in advance of the encroaching ridge. Within this weaker north-northwesterly flow regime, guidance has begun to advertise the return of wildfire smoke to western and north central Nebraska from fires in Canada. Confidence in any surface impacts remains low for now, though increasingly hazy skies are expected by Thursday across the area. As the upper ridge axis finally arrives into this weekend, H5 heights will rise and exceed the 90th percentile climo, potentially approaching the 99th percentile by Sunday. In addition, persistent warm advection will push H7 temperatures near the 99th percentile by late weekend as well. This translates to a period of anomalous temperatures across the entire area Friday through Monday. Sunday continues to look to be the warmest of the period, with SOT guidance creeping up across portions of western and southwest Nebraska. Low 100s are looking increasingly likely for much of the area Sunday afternoon, as the thermal ridge begins to pass overhead. Though deep mixing should limit boundary layer moisture availability, the very warm temperatures should lead to increasing heat concerns nearly each day late week and this weekend. Those with outdoor plans should continue to monitor later forecasts, as heat headlines continue to look increasingly likely this weekend across much of western and north central Nebraska. The increasing heat and dry conditions could also lead to increased fire weather concerns this weekend, especially across western Nebraska where the driest conditions are anticipated. Fuel status remains uncertain, but will have to monitor how things progress as the dry and hot conditions continue through the week. Additionally, breezy winds are expected at times, though confidence in stronger gusts remains low for now. As we head into early next week, the upper ridge begins to flatten out across the Plains, with a belt of stronger westerlies returning to the northern Plains. This, along with a few shortwave troughs expected to round the northern periphery of the upper ridge, should lead to increasing chances for thunderstorms across the area. Any severe weather threat remains uncertain, though some uptick in severe thunderstorm potential would be reasonable should the stronger westerlies aloft encroach on the local area early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024 VFR will continue through the forecast period for western and north central Nebraska terminals. Light and variable winds overnight will transition to easterly by midday as high clouds stream overhead. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Brown LONG TERM...Brown AVIATION...Snively