896
FXUS63 KLBF 091108
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
608 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warming conditions continue into late week and this
weekend, with a threat for dangerous heat Saturday through Monday.

- Increasing fire weather concerns are possible late week and this
weekend as well, with an overlap of very warm, dry, and breezy
conditions at times.

- Scattered thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return early next week,
though any threat for strong to severe storms remains uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Benign weather conditions persist today and into tomorrow, as
upper ridging continues to amplify across the western CONUS and
heights rise aloft across the Plains. Additionally, the area
remains under the influence of surface high pressure, with light
winds persisting into tomorrow. Moderating temperatures
continue today with no airmass changes anticipated, with highs
returning to the upper 80s to low 90s.

By tomorrow afternoon, a fast moving shortwave will dive south out
of Canada through MN/IA, with an associated backdoor cool front
sliding into central Nebraska tomorrow afternoon. Widely isolated
thunderstorms will be possible near and east of HWY 281, in the
vicinity of this surface boundary. Deep layer shear looks to be very
limited amid weak winds aloft, and not anticipating much in the way
of storm organization. Still, a brief stronger pulse storm cannot be
completely ruled out, and this will need to be monitored. The more
noticeable impact of the frontal boundary will be the difference
in high temperatures across the area. For areas of central/north
central Nebraska behind the cool front, highs should remain in
the middle 80s. Further west, highs should climb into the
low/mid 90s across western Nebraska.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

As we head into late week, the upper ridge axis will continue to
migrate eastward towards the Plains, with flow aloft transitioning
north-northwesterly in advance of the encroaching ridge. Within this
weaker north-northwesterly flow regime, guidance has begun to
advertise the return of wildfire smoke to western and north central
Nebraska from fires in Canada. Confidence in any surface impacts
remains low for now, though increasingly hazy skies are expected by
Thursday across the area.

As the upper ridge axis finally arrives into this weekend, H5
heights will rise and exceed the 90th percentile climo, potentially
approaching the 99th percentile by Sunday. In addition, persistent
warm advection will push H7 temperatures near the 99th percentile by
late weekend as well. This translates to a period of anomalous
temperatures across the entire area Friday through Monday. Sunday
continues to look to be the warmest of the period, with SOT guidance
creeping up across portions of western and southwest Nebraska. Low
100s are looking increasingly likely for much of the area Sunday
afternoon, as the thermal ridge begins to pass overhead. Though deep
mixing should limit boundary layer moisture availability, the very
warm temperatures should lead to increasing heat concerns nearly
each day late week and this weekend. Those with outdoor plans should
continue to monitor later forecasts, as heat headlines continue to
look increasingly likely this weekend across much of western and
north central Nebraska.

The increasing heat and dry conditions could also lead to increased
fire weather concerns this weekend, especially across western
Nebraska where the driest conditions are anticipated. Fuel status
remains uncertain, but will have to monitor how things progress as
the dry and hot conditions continue through the week. Additionally,
breezy winds are expected at times, though confidence in stronger
gusts remains low for now.

As we head into early next week, the upper ridge begins to flatten
out across the Plains, with a belt of stronger westerlies returning
to the northern Plains. This, along with a few shortwave troughs
expected to round the northern periphery of the upper ridge, should
lead to increasing chances for thunderstorms across the area. Any
severe weather threat remains uncertain, though some uptick in
severe thunderstorm potential would be reasonable should the
stronger westerlies aloft encroach on the local area early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR will continue through the forecast period for western and
north central Nebraska terminals. Light and variable winds
overnight will transition to easterly this afternoon as high
clouds stream overhead.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Brown
LONG TERM...Brown
AVIATION...Snively