251
FXUS63 KLBF 092004
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
304 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures will range as much as 10 to 15 degrees above
  normal in the 90s to low 100s Friday through Monday, with the
  threat for dangerous heat.

- While dry conditions are also expected much of the next 7
  days, opportunities for at least isolated storm development is
  possible Friday/Friday night with higher chances Monday night
  into Tuesday.

- Fire weather concerns will increase into the weekend as well,
  with very warm, dry, and potentially breezy conditions,
  especially across the western Sandhills into portions of
  southwest Nebraska.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

At 3pm CDT, the remnants of Hurricane Beryl was located over
far southeast Missouri. Cumulus clouds are bringing partly sunny
skies across western Nebraska. Winds were light and variable
with temperatures ranging from 83 to 90 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Tonight, an upper disturbance on the western periphery of the main
upper trough over the Great Lakes will drop south over the eastern
Dakotas into northeast Nebraska. This may trigger a a few showers or
thunderstorms in northeast Nebraska just east of the area. Will keep
the forecast dry attm, as most models not initiating any convection.
Lows in the upper 50s to around 60.

On Wednesday, a weak front will drop south, turning wind to light
northerly. A weak disturbance will move through Iowa and eastern
Nebraska, and may trigger isolated showers or thunderstorms in
the afternoon near and east of Highway 281. Highs from 85 to 88
in the east to 88 to 92 across the west.

Wednesday night, weak surface high pressure will reside over the
area beneath a mostly clear sky. Lows in the upper 50s to near 60.

Wildfire smoke from Canadian wildfires is shown by the 12Z HRRR
to move into north central into eastern Nebraska Wednesday into
Thursday. Confidence in any surface impacts remains low for
now, though increasingly hazy skies are expected mainly across
the northeastern half of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

Thursday into Thursday night, the upper ridge axis will build into
Wyoming and Montana. Hot temperatures will move into the western
Sandhills and southwest with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s.
Slightly cooler air from the upper trough over the Great Lakes will
limit highs to 86 to 89 degrees across the east. By Thursday night,
a weak disturbance in northwest flow will cross the area. Models are
mainly dry, but do generate some weak convection overnight, with
differences in location. Will keep the forecast dry attm, but may
need a mention in upcoming forecasts.

Upper ridging will continue to strengthen across the region
Friday through Sunday. High reach the 90s, with upper 90s to
low 100s across the west and southwest Friday and Saturday.
Sunday remains the hottest day across the area. The ECMWF EFI SOT
tails nearing 0.9 for Max T. Forecast highs in the low 100s near and
west of Highway 83 with upper 90s to the east.

The upper ridge will weaken slightly on Monday as an upper
trough moves across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes. The
cold front will remain well north of the area as highs again
reach the upper mid to upper 90s, with 100 degrees or slightly
hotter continuing across the far west and southwest.

Highs in the 90s should continue on Tuesday as an upper trough begin
to move into the region. There is a larger spread in Max T for
Tuesday, so high temperatures could end up slightly cooler.

A slight chance for storms Friday night, mainly across the north
central, although the location remains uncertain. Better chances
look to arrive Monday night into Tuesday as the upper trough to the
north moves in and begins to push a cold front into the area.

Additionally, will have to monitor the potential for elevated to
near critical fire weather concerns as the heat builds into the
area. This will send humidity values falling to near critical levels
Friday through Monday, across the far western Sandhills and portions
of southwest Nebraska. With recent rainfall and green conditions,
fuels should be very limited. Dry conditions do exist across the
panhandle and portions of the southwest, where fuels may become more
receptive.

Breezy winds may accompany the warm and dry conditions at times.
Will monitor the progression of fuels over the next several days as
the warm and dry pattern sets into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue Jul 9 2024

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska through Wednesday. Do expect some scattered
fair weather cumulus this afternoon but won`t cause any flight
restrictions. Winds will be light and variable.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Taylor