298
FXUS63 KLBF 102346
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
646 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*Patchy fog early Thursday morning

*Isolated thunderstorms Thursday evening into the overnight

*Elevated fire weather concerns for the weekend

*Warmer temperatures towards the end of the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

There will be a potential for some patchy fog Thursday
morning, generally expect fog across north central Nebraska where
smoke particulates could help to enhance the fog potential, do
expect fog to be fairly patchy and brief, only lasting a couple
hours and diminished by mid morning.

As for temperatures on Thursday, did lower high temps slightly,
trending towards the latest models that lowered temperatures a few
degrees as the warmest air under the building ridge remains to the
west in the Nebraska Panhandle for one more day. There is also the
potential for some vertically integrated smoke, leading to hazy
looking skies across north central Nebraska in the morning and early
afternoon hours, do expect most of the haze to be out of the area by
early afternoon. No impacts to sfc visibility expected.


For the thunderstorm potential on Thursday. The greatest
potential for thunderstorm development will be Thursday evening.
Expect thunderstorm development to remain widely isolated, with
most of the latest CAMs keeping the greatest potential for
storms along and west of HWY 83. Given the forecast soundings
for western Nebraska, the main hazard with these storms will be
gusty to damaging winds. There may also be the potential for
hail as lapse rates will be around 7.0 to 7.5 C/km and CAPE
values will be around 2000 J/kg. That being said, do think the
threat for any large hail is low as temperatures aloft will be
quite warm, around 22 to 26 degrees celsius.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The ridge across the southwest CONUS will continue to
build through the week and move eastward, bringing the warmest
temperatures for the weekend with triple digits expected. Will have
to continue to monitor heat indicies as well, even though the
warmest temperatures will be across southwest and western Nebraska
where air temps could reach over 100 degrees. Areas of north central
Nebraska will have higher humidity with air temps in the mid to
upper 90s, the combination could lead to heat indicies into the
upper 90s to 100s. There will also be a elevated fire risk across
western and southwest Nebraska for the weekend, with min RH values
around 15 to 20 percent, however winds are expected to remain light.
A front is expected to push through late Monday and should bring
some reprieve to the stretch of hot temperatures with highs only in
the 80s to low 90s expected for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated through the forecast period.

Main aviation concern will be the threat for fog in the morning
hours on Thursday. Forecast soundings depict potential low
stratus and/or fog at both LBF and VTN for a few hours around
sunrise. For now, confidence in this occurring is low given low
probabilities highlighted by the HREF/SREF solutions. Because of
this, will omit from the current forecast and monitor trends in
guidance. Otherwise, clear to mostly clear skies with light
east-southeasterly winds at or below 15 knots.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...NMJ