468
FXUS63 KLBF 112304
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
604 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures this weekend with heat advisories in effect.

- Isolated thunderstorm chances are expected through the
  weekend. A somewhat better chance for storms enters the
  picture early next week.

- Cooler temperatures are also expected by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Southeast low-level flow will increase today as a leeward surface
trough deepens across far eastern WY into CO. This will transport
low-level moisture northwestward across the area, with low to mid
50s surface dew points in place across the Panhandle to the east of
the trough by late this afternoon. Steep mid level lapse rates will
help yield around 2000 J/KG across much of western NE this
afternoon. Favorable shear profiles will be in place with northwest
flow atop southeast low-level surface flow. An increasing EML will
contribute to H7 temperatures of  14-16C by late afternoon as well.
This will provide a fairly stout capping inversion, nevertheless it
appears a few high based storms will develop along and just east of
the surface trough across far western NE by late afternoon into the
early evening. Shear profiles could support an isolated transient
supercell or two with strong winds and perhaps hail a possibility.
Most short term CAMs carry the activity quickly to the southeast,
brushing the far western portions of Nebraska (mainly west of
Highway 61) this evening. Other isolated/scattered activity
developing off the Black Hills may move into western Nebraska after
midnight. This activity would be driven by mid-level warm air
advection and a southerly LLJ around 35 kts.

Heat will become a concern as we head into Friday and the weekend.
Upper level ridging will become anchored across the Four Corners
region. Our area will be on the northeast periphery of the ridging
with generally weak west-northwest flow aloft (H5 speeds around 25
kts). This flow may increase some by Sunday as a shortwave moves
across the northern plains. Warm temperatures aloft will remain in
place from Friday through the weekend...with H7 temperatures ranging
from 14-17C and H5 temperatures warming to -6C by Sunday. At the
surface, weak low-pressure looks to become established across
northeast CO Friday through the weekend. A warm front will extend
east of this feature near the NE/KS border. Weak east-southeast low-
level flow looks to persist north of the front across NE. As
mentioned, this is a weak warm front as temperatures to the north of
the front won`t vary much from those to the south. Dew points will
be higher to the north of the front as the weak low-level southeast
flow will help transport moisture/humidity westward. It appears that
dew points greater than 70F will be possible at times east of
Highway 183 and 60s to the west. The higher humidity will combine
with air temperatures in the mid 90s to lower 100s and push heat
index readings into the lower 100s for much of the upcoming weekend.

As far as convective chances, only isolated chances are expected
through the weekend. As mentioned temperatures will be very warm
aloft. There will be a bit of enhanced shear with west-northwest
flow atop low-level southeast flow. Instability will also be
noteworthy but there is really no focus or defined wave that is
expected to pass through. The scenario of a storm developing off the
Black Hills and then moving southeastward is supported by some model
solutions both Friday and Saturday afternoon and evenings and will
have to be monitored.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Upper level ridging will flatten some as we head into the beginning
of next week. This will allow for an increased mid-level west to
northwest flow aloft. A couple of shortwaves appear they will cross
the area Tuesday into Wednesday with some increased chance for
convection/rainfall during this time. Later next week the ridge
expands northward once again with chances for rain diminishing.

As the ridge flattens early in the week, a cold front will sink
southward with temperatures actually running a few degrees below
normal mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

Main aviation concern will be the threat for convection to creep
east overnight and impact either terminal. Confidence in this
occurring, much less degrading flight conditions, is very low.
Perhaps more probable is another morning of patchy fog/low
stratus similar to Thursday morning. While this main stay just
east of the terminals, have inserted lower SCT ceilings at both
terminals around sunrise given support for NAM output. Should
convection play a bigger role in the overnight hours, this
fog/stratus threat may diminish so trends will be monitored.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday to 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056-094.
Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Friday to 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ057>059-069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...NMJ