107
FXUS63 KLBF 121739
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1239 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible across western
  and north central Nebraska this afternoon and evening. Some
  storms may become strong to severe, capable of producing
  damaging wind gusts and large hail.

- Dangerous heat commences today into Monday with Heat
  Advisories in effect for much of the area. Precautions must be
  taken to avoid heat related illness. Protect, hydrate, and
  plan!

- Relief from the heat is in sight beginning Tuesday, continuing through
  the end of the week with temperatures falling back into the
  at or slightly below normal range.

- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances continue across the
  area next week, though exact details remain uncertain at this
  time.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Recent GOES-16 WV imagery and RAP 500-mb analysis showed a strong
ridge of high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest, expanding
across the western half of the CONUS. Several weak shortwaves were
traversing along the edge of the upper-level ridge. Further to the
east of this feature, a trough of low pressure was moving northeast
across the Great Lakes, extending southwestward into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. A surface trough axis extended from southeast
Colorado, north into the Nebraska Panhandle and western South
Dakota. This feature combined with sufficient moisture has provided
a focus for some isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop across the Panhandle into the Sandhills. As
of 3 AM CT, temperatures ranged from 67 degrees at O`Neill to 70
degrees at Gordon and North Platte.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Today and Tonight...Today will mark the arrival of much
advertised dangerous heat for western Nebraska, expanding across
all of the area on Saturday. High temperatures will climb into
the mid 90s to 100 degrees for areas along and west of Highway
83 and south of I-80. For areas east, temperatures will climb
into the upper 80s to low 90s. A Heat Advisory will go in effect
for southwest Nebraska this afternoon, continuing through Monday
evening. The surface trough will extend from the Montana/North
Dakota border to eastern Colorado, providing focus for isolated
to scattered storms to develop late this afternoon, spreading
southeast through the evening. Model soundings show an
inverted-v pattern indicating that these storms will be high
based. Given the DCAPE values of 1,000- 1,500 J/kg, strong to
severe wind gusts are the primary concern with these
thunderstorms. However, some storms may contain isolated severe
hail up to 1 inch in diameter.

Saturday and Saturday Night...The upper-level ridge will become
anchored over the Four Corners on Saturday with another day of hot
temperatures in store for the area. Afternoon air temperatures
will climb into the upper 90s to low 100s. Combined with dew
points in the 50s and 60s, heat indices of 95 to 105 degrees
will be felt for many locations. A second Heat Advisory will go
in effect Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for the
Sandhills into north central Nebraska with the first Heat
Advisory remaining in effect for southwest Nebraska. An upper-
level trough across progressing across north central Canada will
contribute to westerly upper-level flow between the trough and
the ridge. A shortwave trough will eject across this westerly
flow, progressing into the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest. The surface trough axis extending southward across
southern South Dakota into northern Nebraska may provide enough
low-level convergence to develop isolated thunderstorms across
the western Panhandle into the Sandhills. Forecast soundings
show deep mixing with inverted-v profiles coincident with DCAPE
values of around 1,000 to 2,000 J/kg. Given this, believe a few
strong to briefly severe storms capable of damaging downburst
winds will be possible for portions of the Sandhills.

Such hot and generally dry conditions will result in elevated
fire weather concerns Friday and Saturday across the Panhandle
and southwest Nebraska. Southeasterly winds will generally
remain under 20 mph, limiting the overall threat of Red Flag
conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 305 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Though relief is in sight for early next week, dangerous heat
continues Sunday and Monday. The signal for another anomalously warm
day is supported by both the NAEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance
suggesting that the mean temperature at H85-7 will meet or exceed
the 99th percentile Sunday. With afternoon air temperatures climbing
into the upper 90s to low 100s combining with dew points in the mid
50s to low 60s, widespread, dangerous heat indices of over 100 to
105 degrees are expected on Sunday. An upper-level trough will move
in vicinity of the Hudson Bay on Sunday, flattening the seemingly
never ending upper-level ridge. This will allow temperatures to fall
into the low 90s for areas north of I-80, though remaining in the
mid 90s to near 100 degree mark for areas south of I-80. The
aforementioned upper-level trough is forecast to swing across the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Monday. A cool front
accompanied with this upper- level trough should track across the
area Monday into Tuesday allowing some reprise from the weekend`s
persistent heat. Behind the front, temperatures are expected to fall
into the 80s Tuesday through the remainder of the week. Multiple
shortwaves eject across the area through the week resulting in
periodic precipitation chances each day beginning Tuesday
through Friday. Confidence in any threat for severe weather
remains low at this time.

The reprise from the heat does not last long as the aforementioned
upper-level trough continues to track east across the Ohio River
Basin, upper-level ridging builds across the western CONUS again.
Long term guidance continues to suggest another period of hot
temperatures are in store for western and north central Nebraska
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Mostly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. There is
an isolated chance of a thunderstorm across western Nebraska.
The greatest chance remains to the west of both KVTN and KLBF
terminals, generally west of HWY 83. Winds will be breezy this
afternoon around 10 to 15 kts with gust up to 25 kts in some
locations. Winds will diminish by this evening out of the south
to southeast around 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Saturday to 7 PM CDT /6
PM MDT/ Sunday for NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056-094.
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ Monday for NEZ057>059-
069>071.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Viken
SHORT TERM...Viken
LONG TERM...Viken
AVIATION...Gomez