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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
497 FXUS62 KKEY 131455 AAD AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Key West FL 1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Although satellite-derived moisture products indicate a wave of tropospheric saturation continuing to propagate through the Florida Keys, the 12z morning sounding at KEY continued to sample residual Saharan dry air above a weak inversion based at around 800 mb. It should thus come as no surprise that all shower activity being detected by nearby KAMX Doppler radar is very shallow in nature. Outside of isolated showers dotting the entire forecast area, skies are mostly sunny. Conditions are borderline oppressive, with heat indices well into the mid 100s at most island communities at this late morning hour. A somewhat challenging forecast for today. Despite decent low- level lapse rates and lower tropospheric moistening, flow continues to slowly collapse. Mesoscale numerical weather prediction guidance is somewhat bullish on shower activity blossoming through this early afternoon in the vicinity of the island chain. We are not sold on this solution, given the aforementioned dry air aloft and slackening steering flow. Have elected to retain the inherited low-end chance level PoPs for the balance of today. Heat will certainly be the main story for today, with heat indices easily eclipsing 110F at times this afternoon. Please limit outdoor activity, taking frequent breaks from the heat, if possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. An Atlantic ridge axis stretching west across the Florida Peninsula will support gentle to moderate easterly breezes through Wednesday. Breezes will slacken and shift to the northwest by Thursday night, as a trough dips south along the Eastern Seaboard. Breezes will become more chaotic by Friday as the ridge axis fractures over Florida. Strengthening Tropical Storm Ernesto near the Leeward Islands will move north towards Bermuda Friday and Friday night. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 AM EDT Tue Aug 13 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. Showers are currently waxing and waning near EYW so VCSH has been included for the next few hours, thereafter near normal rain chances for the day will continue on. Near surface winds will be easterly at near 5 knots. && .CLIMATE... Twenty years ago today in 2004, Hurricane Charley made landfall in the Dry Tortugas as a strong category 2 hurricane. Storm surge of 6 feet and over topping waves caused extensive flooding at Fort Jefferson. Key West International Airport recorded sustained winds of 48 mph, with gusts to 57 mph. Peak wind gusts were recorded at Sombrero Key Light of 64 mph, and Sand Key of 62 mph. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 92 84 92 83 / 30 30 30 30 Marathon 92 84 92 83 / 30 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....BT/AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest