Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
569 FXUS62 KKEY 061851 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 251 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Surface analysis places an expansive area of high pressure over the North Atlantic, currently centered to the northwest of the Azores, with its axis south of the Straits of Florida. To the west in the Gulf of Mexico, Tropical Storm Beryl is starting to slowly reintensify, as it slowly approaches the southeastern Texas coastline. Winds are light out of the southeast across the Florida Keys coastal waters. Temperatures are generally near 90F across the island chain, with dew points in the muggy upper 70s. KBYX radar continues to detect widely scattered showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms, mainly in the coastal waters north of the island chain. Outside of these showers, GOES-16 visible satellite imagery is highlighting mostly sunny skies for the CWA. For tonight, rain and thunder chances will continue to be driven by mesoscale forcing, including residual boundary collisions. There is enough current activity north of the islands to warrant continued low-end chance levels (around 30%) for these interactions to generate measurable rainfall at any given community. It should be noted that although coverage will likely be scattered at best, due to the continued light steering flow, any given location that does get dotted by the showers may experience pretty high rainfall accumulations. A weak, tropical easterly wave will pass just south of the Florida Keys Sunday and Sunday night. The associated moisture surge coupled with at least a tad better forcing for ascent warrants slightly elevated rain and thunder chances for those periods. A slug of drier, dusty air is progged to push towards the Florida Keys after the passage of the wave, resulting in close to nil rain chances for Monday and Monday night. Due to likely ample sunshine, depending on dew points, Heat Advisories may need to be strongly considered for Monday. Beyond Monday, a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell currently located northeast of the Bahamas is progged to dive towards South Florida as it weakens. The cell will make its closest approach to the Keys on Wednesday. The synoptic ascent associated with this feature warrants elevated rain chances. Beyond Wednesday, a series of easterly tropical waves may episodically push through the Keys, riding along the southern periphery of the ridge of high pressure. Given the gentle east to southeasterly steering flow and the presence of these features, an extended period of near-to or slightly above normal measurable rainfall chances seems prudent for now. Temperatures will remain seasonally warm next week outside of any brief rain-cooled periods, with highs generally in the lower 90s, and lows in the lower to mid 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, light to gentle southeast to south breezes will continue tonight and Sunday, as an axis of high pressure remains south of the Florida Keys coastal waters. As the ridge axis shifts, breezes will back to the east to southeast for Monday through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow at both EYW and MTH. Shower activity has remained north of the island chain this morning, but a few isolated showers near the terminals are not out of the question overnight along various boundaries. Confidence in the exact timing of any shower development is low, so have no included VCSH as of now. Surface winds will be out of the southeast to south near 5 knots this evening, then will become more east to southeast later in the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 82 90 82 / 30 30 30 30 Marathon 89 82 89 82 / 30 30 40 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest