285
FXUS62 KKEY 050238
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1038 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Currently - Deep layered ridging remains across the southeastern
United States. The mid and upper level ridge reaches northeastward
out of the Gulf of Mexico into the Mid Atlantic. The surface
ridge runs parallel and just off the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. The
surface ridge`s reach into the Keys is being blunted by an
inverted trough centered a bit north of the Bahamas. Meanwhile,
Hurricane Beryl is pulling further away from the Keys as it tracks
quickly westward through the northwestern Caribbean Sea on its way
towards an overnight landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula. This is
resulting in winds trending downwards and are now gentle to
moderate out of the east. This evenings sounding indicated
seasonable CAPE, limited inhibition, and warm and humid surface
conditions. However, moisture is marginal with a precipitable
water of 1.8 inches with moisture lacking through the lower
levels. All the above means the environment is not very supportive
of convective proliferation. Activity that moved westward off of
South Florida and the Bahamas have mostly dissipated and the
island chain has remained dry.

Short Term Update - Deep layered ridging will remain aligned to
our north through the overnight period. However, the trough/low
north of the Bahamas will cut the Keys off from any influence of
from the surface ridge along the coast. Hurricane Beryl help to
maintain gentle east to southeasterly breezes across the area, but
with a downward trend as it moves further off. Forecast soundings
suggest some lower level inhibition will strengthen through the
overnight period and lower level moisture is expected to fall
further. The combination of the weakening flow, increasing
stability, and falling moisture should amount to slight chance for
pops at best. Expect overnight lows to struggle to fall into the
lower 80s with dew points remaining disgustingly high in the upper
70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Surface ridging will hold on across the southeast while Hurricane
Beryl steadily moves further westward towards the Yucatan
Peninsula and further away from the Keys. As a result, expect
marine winds to remain east to to southeasterly while gradually
trending downwards. No changes planned for the evening marine
update.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight.
Surface winds will be gentle out of the east.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....MJV

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