809
FXUS63 KJKL 130534
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
134 AM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hotter conditions make a comeback as we move into the weekend
  and for next week.

- The next significant chance of rain will hold off until the
  middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2024

We have had some persistent showers and occasional thunderstorms
that have been forming along and ahead of an eastward advancing
outflow boundary. Given this updated to keep PoPs going for a
small portion of the areas mainly along and north of the Mountain
Parkway this evening. Some of these showers are producing brief
heavy rainfall of three quarters of an inch to one inch an hour
rates at times. Other than the PoPs no bigger changes are needed
for this update.

UPDATE Issued at 713 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2024

We have had a few more showers that have develop further east
than expected. This could perhaps be an additional outflow
boundary that was undiagnosed. Either way opted to add in 15 or
less PoP in areawide for a few hours this evening. Outside this
only minor update to add in the latest obs and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 551 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2024

A weak wave is noted in the mid-levels toward SE Missouri. This
has helped sparked off showers and a few thunderstorms across
western and central parts of Kentucky this afternoon. An outflow
off these storms is noted on satellite and WSR-88D data this
afternoon tracking slowly east toward parts of eastern Kentucky.
This has been aiding is developing a few showers and
thunderstorms at times as it tracks east. Given this opted to
keep 15 or less PoP right along our CWA border through the late
afternoon hours. These are expected to relent through the evening,
but HRRR (which has been verifying the best lately) has this
going a little longer into the evening. This trend will be
monitored for future updates. Outside this is a fairly minor
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 312 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2024

The 15Z surface analysis continues to show high pressure situated
over much of the eastern CONUS. A weak surface low remains present
over the Central Plains with a surface boundary extending into the
Ohio Valley. In eastern Kentucky, high pressure remains dominate
with mostly sunny skies. Radar has been a little active over the
last hour or so with pop-up showers developing along and southwest
of the Mountain Parkway. These showers pulse up quickly then
dissipate. Isolated showers will be possible over the next few hours
before diminishing after sunset.

Aloft, a trough continues to be situated over the Great Lakes. The
CWA is presently situated at the base of the trough as it continues
to pivot northeastward out of the area. This trough is helping
trigger the shower activity across the area today but as the trough
exits and daytime heating wanes, those showers will cease to exist.
For the overnight, mostly clear skies will exist and allow for
radiational cooling in the river valleys. Thus allowing for the
development of areas of valley fog through the early morning hours
of Saturday.

Saturday brings about another hot and humid day as surface high
pressure remains overhead. Aloft, west to northwesterly flow will
usher in a drier airmass thus limiting the potential for shower
activity but cannot rule out a stray shower Saturday afternoon.
Overnight Saturday brings around another mostly clear night with
areas of valley fog that`ll burn of early Sunday morning.

Overall, the period will be mostly dry aside from a few isolated
showers or storms with passing clouds. Highs are forecast to be in
the mid to upper-80s into the lower-90s today before climbing into
low to mid-90s for Saturday. Overnight lows will remain mild across
the area too, as lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper-60s
for tonight and again Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 432 PM EDT FRI JUL 12 2024

There is reasonable agreement among models up until about mid week.
We should reside near the southern edge of the westerlies aloft on
Sunday. Our surface air mass is expected to modify to dew points in
the 65-70 range by then, with strong sun pushing highs to about 90
or a little warmer. The resulting forecast soundings show ample
instability. The question is whether or not there will be any
feature on which convection can focus. Being at the southern edge of
the westerlies aloft could provide something (perhaps a MCS
remnant), and a 20% POP was used. After this, the faster flow aloft
retreats to our north and northeast, and with this a dry forecast
was used for Monday. However, heat will remain.

After this, a large scale upper trough will be dropping southeast
out of Canada toward the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. It will result
in geopotential height falls over our region for Tuesday, and
increasing mid/upper level flow by Wednesday along with further
height falls. The trough will also support a cold front which is
expected to approach Tuesday night and reach KY on Wednesday. Low
level flow ahead of the front will bring higher dew points off the
gulf into our area. The approaching upper level trough and
increasing dew points may allow for a few showers/thunderstorms on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. However, the highest POP looks like
Wednesday as the front arrives, and likely category was used area
wide.

Model agreement drops off after this point with regard to frontal
progression. The 12Z run of the GFS takes the front far enough to
our south to allow for dry weather here on Thursday and Thursday
night. The ECMWF is slower, with precip lingering longer, especially
in our southeast counties. A model blend being used will take the
differences into account in its averaging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT SAT JUL 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Decided to remove any
mention of fog with the exception of TEMPO groups to 6SM in BR at
LOZ and SME between 08z and 13z. Otherwise, next concern will be
the potential for an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the
afternoon Saturday, with the highest probability toward SME and
LOZ. With confidence low, will keep any mention of VCSH or VCTS
out of the TAFs with the 06z package, but may add it in for the
12z package if confidence increases. Cloud bases look to average
between 4 kft and 5 kft during the afternoon. Light winds are
expected, with the exception of a light west-northwest breeze
between 5 and 8 kts developing between 15z later this morning and
01z this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC