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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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652 FXUS63 KJKL 181123 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 723 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will impact the region at times through the middle of next week. The lowest probability of rain occurs Thursday night and much of Friday. Probabilities then increase as we move into the new week. - A welcomed relief from hot temperatures is underway through the middle of next week. However, after a drop in humidity Thursday and Friday, the moisture will make a comeback as we move into next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 624 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2024 Widespread showers with a few thunderstorms have worked over the atmosphere and zapped any lingering instability across the area ahead of the cold front. That, plus significant cloud cover across eastern Kentucky, may make it difficult for the atmosphere to destabilize through the remainder of this morning and early afternoon. For that reason, began to conservatively lower the Probability of Thunder grids, and thus thunderstorm chances, through this afternoon. Still kept some >15 percent probabilities in the southeastern two tiers of counties as there is some chance that steepening lapse rates this afternoon with the upper trough passage could trigger a few storms. Other changes this morning were to smooth out PoP discrepancies with neighboring offices, and to update and initialize the forecast with the latest hourly observations. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 330 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2024 Weak instability and plentiful moisture are contributing to scattered to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning over southern parts of the forecast area. This is in association with a cold front that is dragging its heels in moving across the forecast area, with the front analyzed as still being over the Bluegrass region as of 03z last evening. Eventually this front will move southeast through the remainder of the forecast area through this afternoon, with a renewed round of showers and thunderstorms likely developing roughly over and south of a KY- 80/Hal Rogers Parkway line later this morning into early afternoon before moving southeast into southwest VA and northeast TN by evening and clearing the area of precipitation. Cooler and drier air filters into the area today from the north as the area comes increasingly under the influence of surface high pressure to the north. With just some thin high clouds and the cooler and drier air mass, lows tonight will fall into the mid-50s to lower-60s. For Friday, the cooler and drier air mass remains across the CWA, but a mid-level disturbance will move north-northeast and clip southeastern KY late in the afternoon. Models suggest modest moisture return and meager instability, but enough to warrant slight chance to chance PoPs in the grids across the southern half of the forecast area. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 335 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2024 The extended period is beginning to look very active based on the latest long term models. The latest runs of the GFS, ECMWF, GFS Ensembles, and WPC analysis have a frontal boundary setting up initially across the souther tier of states from the southern Plains eastward across the Gulf of Mexico states and lower Tennessee Valley. It appears that with time, this boundary will begin moving slowly northward as waves of low pressure form and move west to east along it. We will experience periods of showers and storms across the area through out the extended, as the front meanders about in the Tennessee Valley over the weekend. We will see our highest precipitation chances during the afternoon and evening hours, during peak heating and as waves of low pressure move by just to our south along the front. We should see periods of lesser rain coverage Saturday and Sunday, as the front makes a couple of southward migrations. By Monday, however, it looks like the front will drift further northward than it will over the weekend. This will lead to longer bouts of rainfall across the area, with or northern areas seeing more rainfall. The front will hang up over our area by Tuesday and Wednesday, and will lead to the highest, persistent precipitation chances we`ll see in the extended over the bulk of the forecast area. The good news is, with persistent widespread cloud cover and numerous bouts of rain expected, temperatures should average below normal through out the period. In fact, most days should see max temperatures in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Humidity will be on the higher side still, but the lower temperatures should make it bearable. The primary forecast concern in the extended will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding issues that may arise as a result. In a nutshell, it looks like we will see a very active weather across eastern Kentucky from Saturday through the middle of next week, as a sluggish frontal boundary sets up nearby and eventually right over the area. Afternoon and evening periods will be the most active, as peak heating and instability are in place. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) ISSUED AT 722 AM EDT THU JUL 18 2024 Residual shower activity will slowly wane and/or move east out of the area through the remainder of this morning. MVFR/IFR conditions will thus slowly improve to VFR by late morning or early afternoon. Additional showers and thunderstorms may develop by early to mid-afternoon, but this activity is expected to remain south of the TAF sites. Winds, outside of any storms, will mostly be out of the north to northwest yet generally light at only 3 to 7 kts in the afternoon. Outside of that, winds will be light and variable. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...CMC SHORT TERM...CMC LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...CMC