715
FXUS63 KJKL 072322
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
722 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot and rain-free weather follows through tomorrow
  morning before a humid and unsettled weather pattern develops
  during the new work week.

- The remnants of Beryl will track to our northwest Tuesday into
  Wednesday, bringing an uptick in shower and thunderstorm
  activity.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024

Radar and satellite suggests a small light rain shower may have
developed recently in Morgan County, with agitated cumulus clouds
extending southwest from Morgan and Elliott counties southwest to
Rockcastle Counties. With the loss of daytime heating, some of
this cumulus activity is already dissipating. Nevertheless, I
penciled in a small edit area of non-zero PoPs in these areas
until 01z. Otherwise, there are no changes to the forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 306 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024

The afternoon surface analysis shows high pressure centered near the
northern parts of the Ohio Valley. In the mid-level, we will see
influence from the higher heights in the Southeast US. The
deterministic and ensemble solutions are in good agreement the mid-
level heights remain largely in place and high pressure pushes east
through the period. Sensible weather wise, we will see a mix of
clear skies and clouds tonight as mid- and higher level flow bring
in mainly high clouds at times. This could still lead to some
slight ridge/valley differences in overnight lows, with lows in
the low to mid 60s in the valleys and mid to upper 60s on the
ridges. There could also be another episode of mainly river valley
fog similar to last night depending on cloud cover to some
degree.

The guidance including ensembles shows surface high pushes east and
opens up weak but southwest flow at the surface. This should help to
yield higher PWAT values similar to that of what we are seeing in
the Smokey Mountains today. The HREF shows shows at least 1.5 to 1.7
PWATs in those areas nearer the Tennessee and Virginia border by
Monday afternoon. The Smokies are seeing showers and thunderstorms
develop under ample heating and moisture today. Given this did
maintain 15 to 25 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly
near the higher terrain of the far southeast near the Virginia and
Tennessee border for Monday afternoon. Otherwise, height rises in
the afternoon will keep most other areas dry at this point. We will
see another hot afternoon with heat indices climbing to near 100
degrees, as we see moisture return and afternoon highs in the lower
90s. We could start seeing more clouds return especially Monday
night given the remnants of Beryl moves into parts of the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. Given this only minor ridge/valley
splits were maintained at this point, with overnight lows
generally in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024

The overall large scale upper level flow pattern in the extended
will start off with a broad trough of low pressure in place over
the western CONUS west of the Rocky Mountains. This trough will
extended from the Baja Peninsula northward through the desert
southwest and up the west coast, and into portions of the Pacific
Northwest early Tuesday. Another trough of low pressure will be in
place across the Great Plains eastward into the Great Lakes and
middle and lower Mississippi Valley. The remnants of Beryl will
be the highlighted weather feature in the extended. Beryl will
ride northward along a cold front that will extend southward from
a surface trough centered just north of the eastern Great Lakes in
Canada. Lastly, a dirty ridge of high pressure aloft will be in
place over the eastern Atlantic just off the southeastern CONUS
coast. Moist, tropical air flowing onshore around the ridge will
spark showers and storms across the state of Florida and portions
of the southeastern seaboard.

The remnants of Beryl will track slowly north and northeastward
along a surface front through out the week, and will bring rain to
a large portion of the eastern CONUS for several days. In fact,
Beryl could wet the ground from the southern Plains, the mid-
Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes, western Ohio Valley and into New
England by the time next weekend arrives. There will be risks of
heavy rainfall and flooding where what`s left of Beryl tracks. For
our neck of the woods, we should see minimal impacts from Beryl,
but should still pick up scattered showers and storms as the
system moves by just to our west mid-week. Once Beryl has moved
away toward the end of the week, we could still see showers and
storms moving in from the east, as return flow behind Beryl pushes
additional moisture into the region to end the week and heading
into the weekend.

As far as temperatures go, we should see generally above normal
readings each day, with highs maxing out mainly in the upper 80s
to mid 90s. Nightly lows will fall into the upper 60s and lower
70s for most locations. The models were actually doing a decent
job with Beryl`s evolution in the extended, with similar tracks
and system strength through the end of the week. That being said,
used a combination of the ECMWF and GFS ensembles to handle things
in the extended. Went pretty close to MOS guidance for temps in
the extended, with modifications made where needed.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT SUN JUL 7 2024

We have high pressure at the surface and ridging in the mid-levels
leading to VFR conditions this afternoon. There are some afternoon
cumulus hanging around 4 kft and these will dissipate as we move
toward the evening. Outside this valley fog will be possible once
again tonight and will mainly be confined to the river valley
locations. However, did add in MVFR mist at SME and SYM given a
more persistence forecast. This fog will lift around 13 to 14Z
Monday morning. The winds will remain light and calm generally
less that 5 knots out of the northeast and then southwest by
Monday afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DJ