353
FXUS63 KJKL 061735 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
135 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Somewhat cooler and less humid weather arrives behind a cold
  front today.

- Seasonably hot and rain-free weather follows for Sunday before a
  humid and unsettled weather pattern develops for the new work
  week.

- We will also be watching the course of Beryl`s remains later in
  the week for possible impacts here in eastern Kentucky.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 135 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Forecast is generally on track. Did increase cloud cover based on
regional satellite loop, which is showing considerable mid and
high cloud cover upstream. These cloud will pass across the area
through the late afternoon and evening time frame. This may also
limit the overall mix down potential of drier air through the
boundary layer. Thus far have seen surface dew points flirting
with some upper 50s in spots, but generally have leveled off in
the low 60s. Still dry enough for more comfortable sensible
weather out there this afternoon. Forecast products have all been
updated.

UPDATE Issued at 1038 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Forecast is on track this morning. Morning valley fog has lifted
and burned off. A bit more pleasant weather expected today with a
slightly drier air in place across eastern Kentucky. Our morning
Cu field will dissipate through the day as a strong sun will help
mix down drier air through the boundary layer as well, leading to
surface dew points as far down as the upper 50s this afternoon,
adding to the comfort and less cloud cover. Tweaked temp grids
for hourly trends and freshened up the zones to remove time
references and morning fog. No other changes to the forecast
package at this time.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024

No significant changes to the forecast - just the inclusion of
the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids with this update.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows a cold front dropping through the eastern
parts of Kentucky. This has mostly shunted the convection off to
the southeast of the state with just some clouds left behind.
These clouds have so far been enough to limit the fog formation
overnight, but as they clear out into dawn do expect a bit more
fog development. Otherwise, temperatures are running in the lower
70s most places with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, amid
light winds.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict general troughiness to the northwest of
the area with ridging off to the southeast through Sunday. Benign
southwest mid level flow with only limited energy holds forth
over the southern Ohio Valley during this time but looking ahead
this stable pattern aloft may help to provide a glide path for
the remnants of Beryl to impact the area later in the week. The
model spread through the short term is still fairly small so the
NBM was used as the starting point for the grids through Sunday
afternoon with little deviation needed aside from the addition of
more terrain details for hourly and low temperatures tonight.

Sensible weather features a quiet, dry, and somewhat more
comfortable day in the wake of a cold front exiting the area just
after dawn. This will set the stage for a decent ridge to valley
temperature split after dark and through the night. In addition,
valley fog is anticipated with locally dense patches a good bet.
Sunday will see more heat and humidity move back into the area as
the post frontal high pressure starts to move off to the northeast
allowing return flow warmth and humidity to reenter this part of
the state.

The main changes to the NBM starting point consisted of adjusting
the temperatures in order to better reflect more terrain details
tonight. PoPs were minimal from the NBM and were basically kept
that way through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 409 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Surface high pressure will continue to remain in place overhead to
start the period but with the approach of an upper-level trough,
flow turns southwesterly allowing for influx of moisture. As a
result, temperatures on Monday are forecast to the warmest of the
period as highs are forecast to be in the low to mid-90s. This
coupled with warm, moist southwesterly flow, heat indices will be
approaching 100 degrees to over 100 in isolated locations.

Models continue to remain in agreement with a positively tilted
trough approaching the area. At the surface, a surface low will be
tracking through the Upper Great Lakes. Along and ahead of the
front, increasing showers and thunderstorms are likely. As the low
tracks through the Great Lakes, the front will dive southeast
through the CWA. Forecast soundings, sampled ahead of the front show
a marginally severe atmosphere. Can`t rule out a severe storm or two
but overall, pre-FROPA environment appears to be a poor supportive
environment for severe storms. As the surface low ejects northeast,
the surface boundary will extend southwest toward the Ozark Plateau.
This will set the stage for the remnants of Hurricane Beryl to ride
along the boundary and into the forecast area for the end of the
forecast period.

Overall, the period will with a break from the showers and storms
but moving into next week, periods of showers and thunderstorms will
bring much needed rain to the area. However, temperatures will
continue to hang around climatological ranges as daytime highs in
the mid-80s to low-90s and overnight lows ranging from the upper-50s
to upper-60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2024

VFR flight conditions are being forecast through the period.
Overnight valley fog development is not expected to impact any
terminals overnight. Otherwise, regional satellite loops is
showing some considerable mid and high clouds upstream. These
cloud will pass across the area between now and this evening.
Winds will average around 5 kts or less through the period,
generally from the west. KSYM may tend to flow out of the west-
southwest due to local terrain effects.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...RAY