900
FXUS62 KJAX 140000
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 0800 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Lowered temperatures over locations which received some rainfall
from earlier showers/storms over north central Florida.
Otherwise, forecast remains on track. Lows tonight will trend down
to the mid 70s across the area, with coastal locations a bit
warmer in the upper 70s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Rest of this afternoon...Slight increase in deeper moisture aloft
over NE FL to the south of the I-10 corridor still on track to
interact with sea breeze fronts and should lead to scattered to
numerous showers and storms through sunset with slow and erratic
storm movement and some heavy downpours as the main threat. Along
the I-10 corridor and points northward across SE GA still have
some lingering drier airmass aloft and will likely only see widely
scattered showers and storms through the evening hours. Heat
indices still expected to peak in the 104-108F range as convection
gets started during the mid-late afternoon hours as temps reach
well into the 90s area-wide.

Tonight...Later start to some convection and outflows/sea breeze
interaction will likely lead to at least isolated showers and
storms over inland areas until around midnight tonight. Otherwise
fair skies with some leftover convective debris clouds in the
mid/upper levels and humid conditions overnight with lows in the
lower/middle 70s inland and upper 70s to near 80 along the
Atlantic Coastal areas and St. Johns River Basin.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The area will remain on the western periphery of a Bermuda high
maintaining light south-southwesterly flow. The Atlantic sea breeze
will likely only shift to the I-95 corridor each day. Scattered
to numerous showers and storms developing along the sea breezes on
Sunday will be mainly focused in NE FL and coastal SE GA.
Coverage then increases to area-wide on Monday as low-level
tropical moisture (PWATs 2+ in.) spreads back northward. Hot
daytime temperatures are expected in the mid/upper 90s. With
dewpoints in the 70s, heat indices could rise into the 103-108 F
range on Sunday. Heat Advisory conditions may be possible on
Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Summertime pattern of numerous showers and storms developing each
afternoon along the sea breezes continues into mid-week. A frontal
boundary starts to drop southward towards northern GA by Thursday
and Friday, which could bring the potential for more widespread
rain chances for the area. High temperatures lower slightly into
the low/mid 90s due to area-wide convection each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 0800 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Lingering showers and storms will clear during overnight hours.
Moisture over the area will see the chance of showers and storms
along north central Florida and along the coast. GNV/SGJ will
see the higher chances of showers/storms near 16Z/17Z, included
PROB30 for those sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Bermuda high pressure will remain the dominant feature into next
week resulting in generally light southerly flow. Daily surges of
south-southeasterly winds develop across the nearshore waters with
the development of the afternoon sea breeze. Seas will gradually
build through the weekend into early next week as a modest onshore
swell reaches the local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and early
evening hours each day.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents continues at all
local beaches this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  97  75  96 /  10  20  10  60
SSI  79  93  78  93 /  10  20  10  50
JAX  75  95  76  95 /  10  70  20  60
SGJ  76  93  77  93 /  20  50  30  60
GNV  73  94  75  93 /  30  70  20  70
OCF  74  93  75  94 /  40  70  20  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$