412
FXUS62 KJAX 110506
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
106 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The earlier showers have mostly made their way out of the local
area, with some showers still lingering over Flagler and Putnam
counties which should clear out before midnight. The earlier
showers brought temperatures down across most of the area, so
went ahead and adjusted temperatures heading into and through the
overnight hours. Pre-dawn showers and storms will be possible for
areas south of the I-10 corridor in NE FL as dry air filters in
over SE GA due to a front stalling north of the FL/GA border.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Limited convection is occurring across NE FL from Ponte Vedra to
Ocala and will quickly exit east of that line this mid afternoon.
North of I-10 into SE Georgia some clusters of showers with some
embedded thunder will linger through late afternoon with some
thunderstorms having wind gusts of 25 to 40 mph, with that
environment comparatively more stable. Otherwise in the wake of
the convection some post convective light stratiform rain will
linger early evening. Light west winds are expected overnight.

Tonight a coastal trof will be in place offshore the GA/SC coast
while high pressure will be situated over south FL and the
northeast Gulf of Mexico which will keep our southern tier zones
open to westerly flow overnight with some development of pre-dawn
showers and isolated storms streaming into the region mainly south
I-10 during the pre-dawn hours, mainly south of I-10 into north
central FL. Over SE GA slightly drier air will attempt to filter
in overnight. Lows tonight will be in the mid 70s inland to
upper 70s along the beaches and coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The front will be stalled just north of the FL/GA state border on
Thursday, leaving much drier air across SE GA, keeping dewpoints
in the 60s to lower 70s. Precipitation potential will increase
southward, with Jacksonville sitting at about a 20% chance, with
Ocala around a 60% chance of showers with embedded thunderstorms.
With mostly sunny skies, SE GA high temperatures will reach the
lower to mid 90s, whereas most of NE FL will stay in the upper 80s
to lower 90s.

Temperatures will increase on Friday to well above normal with
highs climbing into the mid to upper 90s with mainly scattered
coverage of diurnal thunderstorms across NE FL and SE GA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

The front will lift northward and dissipate this weekend, and with
southerly flow ample moisture will be in place for daily
thunderstorm activity. Overall, each day SE GA will see precip
potential in the 40-60% range, with higher coverage expected over
NE FL, especially in north central Florida. Temperatures will
remain above normal, with highs in the mid 90s and mild lows in
the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Some clouds and low cloudiness across the area early with just some
patchy fog during the overnight hours in places like Cecil
Airport. With widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
developing south of the Florida-Georgia State Line tomorrow will
keep convection to VCTS in the Jacksonville Metro area and a
PROB30 group for KGNV & KSGJ.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024

High pressure ridge stays south and southwest of the waters while
a frontal boundary remains to the northwest into Saturday before
weakening. Mainly offshore winds from the west to northwest
expected into Thursday with more southerly winds Friday into the
weekend and early next week as high pressure rebuilds to the east
with daily afternoon seabreeze circulations creating scattered to
numerous afternoon and early evening thunderstorms over the near
shore waters.

Rip Currents: Offshore westerly winds will create a low risk for
rip currents at all area beaches through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  94  73  97  74 /   0   0  30  10
SSI  93  79  93  80 /  10  10  40  20
JAX  95  75  97  76 /  20  10  40  20
SGJ  92  76  95  77 /  20  10  40  20
GNV  91  73  94  74 /  40  10  40  10
OCF  90  74  93  75 /  60  20  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$