549
FXUS62 KJAX 111139
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
739 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The region will be between a short wave trough shifting eastward
across the mid MS/lower OH valley and Great Lakes and an upper
level low/weak surface trough northeast of the Bahamas. At the
surface, a weak frontal boundary will extend west to east along
the Gulf coast into NE FL today and sink into north central FL
through the afternoon as weak surface high pressure stays over
the TN valley. Higher moisture levels will be over north central
FL (PWATs up to 2.00 inches) while drier from I-10 northward as
moisture stays a little below average (PWATs 1.4-1.6). Therefore,
scattered showers and T`storms south of a line from Gainesville
to St Augustine with T`storms not expected northward due to the
much drier air behind the front. Winds will be from the west
northwest 5-10 mph with a weak, delayed Atlantic seabreeze pinned
east of I-95. Lower dewpoints today will be in the lower 70s for
much of NE FL south of I-10 and the mid 60s over SE GA. Highs will
be in the low 90s south of I-10, around 90 over north central FL,
and the mid 90s along I-95 and north of I-10 with low 90s at the
beaches. Lower dewpoints will keep max heat index values 98-102.

Skies will trend mostly clear overnight with dry conditions after
sunset, with the upper low to the east continuing showers and
T`storms east of the Gulf stream waters through sunrise. Winds
will be light from the west northwest 3-5 mph. Lows will be near
normal inland in the lower 70s and a bit above normal closer to
the coast in the mid to upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Friday...An upper level trough extends from the Great Lakes south
to the lower Mississippi River Valley. The tropical Disturbance
in the Bahamas (see NHC Tropical Outlook) this morning, moves to
eastern North Carolina by Friday morning with an elongated tail of
showers and thunderstorms extending back to east coastal Florida
and coastal Georgia then along the I-4 corridor into the Gulf of
Mexico. Dry air intrusion around the back side of the low pressure
area will decrease convection over the inland areas of NE FL and
SE GA. The Bermuda Azores Ridge will be flattened on the west side
and well offshore as the low progresses northward. With the dry
air and subsidence behind the low high temperatures will be hot
across the area with highs in the upper 90s to near 100. The good
news is with low relative humidity values the heat index values
will be limited with Heat index values "only" in the 98 to 103F
range.

Friday night...The tropical tail moves north of extreme north
Florida with a few showers across the area early with rainfall
diminishing soon after sunset. Low temperatures will average in
the mid 70s.

Saturday...The tropical tail starts the day oriented over the
local coastal waters into Apalachee Bay with convection offshore
in both areas at sunrise. An upper short wave trough digs into
the Upper Mississippi River Valley with a col area over the
Southeast States. Widely scattered convection will develop across
the area Saturday afternoon and evening. High temps will be in
the mid 90s, with general heat index values of 101 to 106F.

Saturday night...That upper level short wave digs further
southeast into the Appalachians with convection diminishing over
the land areas but with widespread convection over the coastal
waters and Apalachee Bay. Low temperatures will be in the mid 70s
yet again toward sunrise on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Sunday...As the short wave continues to drop southeast convection
will be continuing overnight over the coastal waters and
spreading back over the forecast area early. By Afternoon the sort
wave will be over the eastern seaboard with widespread convection
over the eastern portion of the area and a good chance of showers
and thunderstorms inland. High temps will be in the mid 90s.

Sunday Night...The short wave will be moving offshore with widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing overnight across
the area early and diminishing after midnight. Low temperatures
will be in the mid 70s.

Monday through Thursday...The Bermuda-Azores Ridge axis will build
west over the south and central Florida peninsula, with a series
of short wave troughs moving across the Great Lakes and New
England. A surface trough will extend along the Gulf coast states
into central Georgia and will be the focusing mechanism for
scattered afternoon and evening showers and will allow widely
scattered shower and thunderstorms to continue overnight. High
temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s with lows in the mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A drier air mass has filtered in to areas north of FL State Route
16 today. With drier air in place, thunderstorm coverage will be
diminished with just a VCTS descriptor at GNV during the afternoon
with a storm possible. Otherwise, VFR through the period with some
afternoon cumulus and some high clouds. West to northwest wind at
5 to 10 knots this late morning and afternoon with light and
variable winds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

A weak trough to the east of the waters will move north towards
the Carolina coast by Friday morning while moisture trails over
the waters from the remnants of Beryl shifting from New England
into the Canadian Maritimes. The Bermuda high ridge axis will
remain across the FL peninsula with southerly winds and daily
afternoon seabreeze circulation that will induce southeasterly
winds near shore where scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
develop and persist into the early evening hours.

Rip Currents: Offshore westerly winds will create a low risk for
rip currents at all area beaches today. A moderate risk of rip
currents will return on Friday as the Atlantic seabreeze moves
onshore with southeasterly winds 8-12 mph.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 238 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...HIGH DISPERSION VALUES THIS AFTERNOON...

Drier conditions across the Forecast Area with the majority
of the convection from FL State Road 20 southward. Dispersion
values will max out in the 70 to 80 ranges this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  93  74  96  75 /   0   0  30   0
SSI  93  79  92  81 /   0  10  40  20
JAX  95  76  96  77 /  10  10  40  10
SGJ  92  77  94  79 /  20  10  50  10
GNV  91  74  95  75 /  20  10  40  10
OCF  90  74  93  76 /  50  20  50  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$