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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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980 FXUS62 KJAX 121114 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 714 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM......(Today through Saturday)... The weak surface low pressure rotating over the coastal Atlantic waters, about 150 miles east of Fernandina Beach, will slowly lift northward toward the Carolinas today. As it does this maneuver, it will begin to fill as it decouples from the influence upper low to the south. The frontal zone tethered to the low will lift northward as well, allowing backing low-level flow to advect moisture pooled across the northeastern Gulf eastward and into the region. Overall only isolated to widely-scattered coverage of mainly low-top showers and a handful storms are expected this afternoon. Best chances (around 20-30%) will be at the coast and along I-95 where moisture should be enough to generate marginal instability. However, given the mid level lapse rates expected, potential for deep or strong storms will be quite low. Tonight, quiet conditions under partly clear skies will prevail as ridging aloft centers itself overhead. On Saturday, Moisture steered by a weak southerly flow will trend PoPs and storm coverage upward (40-70%), mainly across NE FL and south of I-10. Amid the weak flow, sea breezes will push inland from the Atlantic and Gulf, setting the stage for a merger around the Highway 301 corridor. Slow storm, or outflow dominant, motion combined with deep layer moisture (PWATs around 2") will lead to localized minor flood potential. Fortunately the 2-day break in convection has allowed the ground to soak in recent rains and significant flooding concerns are low. Temperatures will read in the mid and upper 90s today but dewpoints will mix out, keeping heat index more tolerable today and Saturday (upper 90s and low 100s). For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf && .SHORT TERM...(Saturday night through Sunday night) Remaining convection weans through the first half of Saturday Night, with a mild night in the mid to upper 70s and near 80 at the coast and St. Johns. An upward trend in chances for showers and t`storms continues into Sunday with a weak southerly flow regime, and PWATs starting to creep back up from south to north as a frontal boundary just north of the CWA lifts further northward. Highest POPs will be with the sea breeze collisions over northeast FL, with some drier air still lingering a bit the further north you go. High temps Sunday will remain a bit above average, mainly in the mid 90s and some upper 90s over the interior. Dew points will be creeping up into the 70s for most, but likely still low enough to remain just below any heat advisory criteria. Convection similarly dissipates into Sunday Night with lows once again in the mid to upper 70s to near 80. && .LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday) A pretty stagnant weak flow regime continues to start the next work week, and through most of the long term as a whole. Generally broad high pressure over the area starts to slowly shift further eastward into the Bermuda High by mid to late week, which should keep up the south to southeasterly flow with the westward extent of a surface ridge more directly over the area and PWATs of 2 inches or higher in place over the entirety of the area. Temps will remain above average for this period, though trending slightly downward each day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 708 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024 VFR conds this morning with light winds and just a few high clouds at local TAF sites and not much change expected this afternoon as limited moisture will keep rainfall chances only in the 20-30% range and for now will keep current VCTS at all TAF sites but this may need to be removed as the drier airmass aloft may prevent any shower/storm activity at some TAF sites this afternoon/early evening. Light winds will allow for a weak east coast sea breeze to push inland and will likely be the focus for any shower/storm activity until sunset. Another quiet night is expected tonight with just a few high clouds and fog chances too low to include with this TAF package. && .MARINE... No significant maritime weather concerns are expected through the weekend and into next week. A weak surface low offshore will lift northward into the Carolinas today where it will dissipate through the weekend as broad high pressure regains prominence across the waters. From Sunday onward, the stagnant high pressure pattern will change very little, with a predominant southerly flow in place and afternoon sea breezed development. Seas will gradually build through the weekend as a modest onshore swell reaches the First Coast. Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk will develop this afternoon with the sea breeze at NE FL beaches. A Low Risk is expected at SE GA beaches. Moderate risk is expected at all beaches this weekend as surf builds to 2-4 ft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 95 74 96 75 / 10 10 10 0 SSI 93 81 93 80 / 20 20 20 10 JAX 97 76 96 77 / 30 10 40 10 SGJ 94 78 93 77 / 30 10 40 20 GNV 94 74 93 74 / 20 10 60 10 OCF 94 76 93 75 / 40 10 60 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$