Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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638 FXUS62 KJAX 052321 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 721 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Squeeze play already evident on visible satellite imagery with this morning`s low cloudiness lifting and becoming the focusing mechanism for afternoon and evening convection. The east coast sea breeze front is approaching I-95 and moving slowly inland. Precip Water is 2.00+ across the region so locally heavy rainfall with convection is likely. Expect the main sea breeze front convergence to be between I-75 and U.S. 301 northward to the FL- GA State Line and then between U.S. 1 and U.S. 301 over SE Georgia. With clearing skies tonight and moist ground from the day`s convection will see fog formation across the interior with a broken low cloud deck after midnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 This Saturday a cold front will be situated from the western Carolinas thru north central Georgia into southern Louisiana. This scenario will allow markedly heighten precipitable water values (2.25 to 2.40") to pool across the region. A persistent pattern continues with warm temps aloft with mid level Atlantic ridge well offshore with our region on the western periphery of the high pressure area. With warm temperatures aloft (-5C at 5h) not expecting much in the way of severe convection but some very localized heavy rain (1 to 3") is anticipated with slow moving storms. The weak pressure pattern will allowing both the Atlantic and Gulf coast seabreezes to move inland and merge near highway 301. With drier air aloft, some strong wind gust potential (30 to 45 mph) may occur with some pulse storms along with frequent lightning. Light east to southeast winds 5-10 mph will move onshore behind the Atlantic seabreeze with light SW winds behind the Gulf seabreeze. Highs will rise into the mid 90s away from the coast with low 90s at the beaches. Heat index values will be in the 105-110 degree range near heat advisory levels, particularly over the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor. Saturday night, T`storms should end by midnight inland with very light southerly winds turning near calm well after sunset. Multi level cloud cover from fading T`storms will slowly disperse overnight to partly cloudy skies. Lows will be in the mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 at the coast. Very similar pattern will persist on Sunday. The cold front will hedge slightly southward with the feature over south central Georgia to near the FL Panhandle/Alabama border. The mid to upper level ridging over the eastern Gulf/FL peninsula. With the weak surface pressure gradient, both seabreezes should merge inland with locally heavy rainfall creating potential localized flooding concerns due to the high moisture content and slow storm motions. Highs will be a only a degree or two lower compared to Saturday due to more numerous to widespread T`storm coverage and mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon/early evening hours with low to mid 90s inland and around 90 at the coast. Heat index values will range 104-108 degrees, again on the precipice of heat advisory criteria. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Persistent west-central Atlantic ridging over does nudge eastward over the east-central part of the Basin with some weakening of the peripheral influence of the western part of the ridge over our region. A secondary front moves into nearly the same position as our weekend front keeping a persistent pattern over the region. Temperatures aloft (H5) stay about the same (-4C to -5C). PWATs remain sticky (> 2.00 inches) thru much of the period. The pressure gradient remains weak with storm steering flow light S/SSW Monday through Tuesday. Weaker flow Wednesday and Thursday will likely bring merging seabreezes near Highway 301. High end scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers are anticipated through the period. Temperatures will begin the period near normal Monday and Tuesday with highs in the lower 90s and and then warm to above normal the rest of the week as highs inland reach the mid 90s with isolated upper 90s not out of the question. Lows will be a little above normal in the low to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s to near 80 at the immediate coast and St Johns river basin. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 721 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions expected overnight with the exception of pre-dawn fog at VQQ Saturday morning. By the afternoon, scattered thunderstorms will develop. The highest chances being at GNV, therefore a PROB30 is in place there, with VCTS at the Duval sites, whereas probability is too low for SSI and SGJ as of now. && .MARINE... Issued at 1238 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 The Bermuda-Azores High Pressure area will ridge back across the FL peninsula through the period with nocturnal wind surges each night along the western periphery of the ridge. Also the east coast sea breeze front will develop over the near shore waters each afternoon and evening. Rip Currents: Moderate risk through the weekend due to an easterly swell. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 94 75 91 / 60 70 40 70 SSI 79 91 79 90 / 10 40 20 50 JAX 76 94 76 93 / 10 60 20 50 SGJ 77 92 77 93 / 10 50 10 30 GNV 74 94 73 93 / 30 70 30 60 OCF 75 93 76 93 / 30 60 40 60 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$