462
FXUS62 KJAX 150722
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
322 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)...

Biggest change today will be the development of a deeper, but light,
southwesterly flow. This will send the Gulf sea breeze across NE FL
and slowing the inland progress of the Atlantic sea breeze this
afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers are expected along the sea
breezes with potential for a handful of stronger storms along the
collisions between the two and along the St Johns River breeze.

Storms will be slow moving but generally shift east-northeast at
speeds around 5-10 mph. Despite the weak motion, the deep moisture
(PWATs > 2.0") will promote efficient rain rates which could result
in localized flooding, especially in urban areas. Additionally,
strong outflow winds (30-50 mph) are also possible with deeper
updrafts.

Amid the southwest flow, an earlier convective start is expected
with storms developing as early as noon along the I-75 corridor,
then spreading ENEward across NE FL through the afternoon before
fading and pushing off the coast during the early evening.

Hot and humid conditions continue, particularly at the coast where
heat index of 107-110F are possible. A Heat Advisory for all of the
immediate coastal zones will be in effect this afternoon. Inland
zones will be hot as well but heat index values are more likely to
stay below 108F. Take precautions when working outdoors today and
take frequent breaks to hydrate/cool off.

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday Night)

Not much change in the pattern is expected for most of this
period, as a modest south to southwest flow continues to prevail.
The flow is expected to remain just strong enough for the sea
breeze to be mainly pinned near I-95 during peak heating, with the
Gulf sea breeze and other boundary collisions helping to fuel
numerous convection area wide. Temps will also remain generally a
bit above average as well, generally in the mid 90s except near
the immediate coast. Dew points in the mid to upper 70s keep some
areas close to heat advisory levels as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Sunday)

Numerous to even widespread convection looks to continue into
most of the long term as a frontal boundary starts to slowly sag
southward and stall just north of the area. An upper trough starts
to dig southward into the southern Plains by the end of the week,
but slows any progress further southeastward as stacked high
pressure ridging remains in place across the FL peninsula in a
blocking-like pattern. There is certainly discrepancies amongst
guidance as to how this trough behaves, especially into this
weekend. However, general outlook will be a persistent south to
southeasterly flow with an unsettled pattern for the long term.
Temperatures are expected to trend near to slightly above normal
during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 212 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Steady VFR conditions through the period outside of convective
influences. Scattered t`storms will develop along a pinned sea
breeze early this afternoon. Convection may initiate as early as
16z, but impacts to terminals along the I-95 corridor are more
likely between 19z-22z. Concerns with convection will be
downburst/outflow winds and occasional visibility restriction due
to downpours. Light southwest winds prevail at inland sites
through the day. The easterly (Atlantic) sea breeze around 6-10
kts will push into the KSSI/KSGJ/KCRG terminals early this
afternoon but will stall around I-95.

&&

.MARINE...

A stagnant pattern will be set up across the region this week
with high pressure to the east and troughing to the northwest.
Winds will favor a southerly direction, surging to 10 to 15 knots
with the afternoon sea breeze. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms
will be possible each day this week. A cool front will approach
late this week but likely stall well to the north.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents today and Tuesday
at area beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  96  75  95  75 /  50  30  60  20
SSI  93  78  93  79 /  40  30  60  30
JAX  95  76  96  76 /  70  30  70  30
SGJ  94  77  94  77 /  60  30  70  30
GNV  92  73  93  73 /  80  30  60  20
OCF  93  75  94  75 /  80  40  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for GAZ154-166.

AM...None.
&&

$$