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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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975 FXUS62 KJAX 161833 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move eastward this afternoon, later interacting with the pinned Atlantic sea breeze. Main hazards will be gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. Convection will taper off around sunset, with lows in the mid 70s inland, and upper 70s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Pattern for moist southwesterly flow with daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms, forming most heavily along sea breeze boundaries and areas of collision, will continue through midweek with zonal flow becoming more enhanced by Thursday as the pressure gradient between high pressure ridging to the south and the high pressure boundary to the north tightens and results in a more distinct southwesterly wind profile pressing back the diurnal east coast sea breeze. Temperatures will continue to be above average through this period with daily max temps reaching into the mid 90s with Heat Advisory conditions possible during peak heating. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Prevailing flow will be out of the southwest through the end of the week and then shift to become more out of the south and then southeast by the end of the period as the ridge of high pressure situated to the east shifts to be more to the northeast. Pattern for daily bouts of convection forming along the sea breeze boundaries and areas of collision will continue through the weekend. Temperatures will be above average through the end of the week and into the weekend with max temps rising into the 90s and a potential for Heat Advisory conditions through the period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Models have not been doing a great job today for thunderstorm development, so have adjusted tempo timing for TS in all of the TAF sites up a few hours. Around sunset, convection will diminish leaving VFR conditions overnight with the exception of visibility restrictions at VQQ pre-dawn. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 The axis of Atlantic high pressure will stretch across the Florida peninsula through midweek, keeping a prevailing southerly wind flow in place across our local waters. Atlantic high pressure will sink southward later this week as a frontal boundary enters the southeastern states. Mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase in coverage throughout our local waters later this week as this boundary stalls to the northwest of our local waters. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues through tomorrow for NE FL and SE GA beaches. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 75 95 75 95 / 40 60 20 60 SSI 79 93 78 93 / 40 60 30 60 JAX 76 95 76 96 / 30 60 20 70 SGJ 77 94 77 94 / 30 60 20 60 GNV 74 92 73 94 / 50 70 10 70 OCF 74 93 75 94 / 40 70 10 80 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-125-133-138. GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ233-166. AM...None. && $$