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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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414 FXUS62 KJAX 171720 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 120 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 908 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend and Nature Coast and with a synoptic west-southwest flow pattern, around the Bermuda ridge axis to our south, they should advect inland toward the east coast. Yet another day of the east coast sea breeze being pinned to the Atlantic coast and convection developing between it and a river breeze off the St Johns. HRRR looks underdone again for convection and with our high PWATs and hot inland temps/strong Atlantic sea breeze inflow see no reason why we won`t pop this afternoon and evening. No changes to the overnight forecast. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf A similar setup compared to Tuesday is looking likely again today as our southwesterly flow regime continues near the surface with a weak flow aloft. Both a persistence forecast method and Hi Res guidance support an earlier start to diurnal convection this afternoon, with a "surge" of Gulf sea breeze showers and t`storms making their way from west to east this afternoon before running into a nearly pinned east coast sea breeze by late afternoon and into the evening. This I-95 corridor area will once again have the best chance of any stronger storms with the primary collision of boundaries, with gusts in the 40-55mph range possible and a very isolated severe pulse storm not out of the question. Highs are likely to peak during around the early afternoon hours for most, generally in the low to mid 90s. Though depending on how early and extent of the coverage of convection, it is quite possible highs for a number of areas could underachieve a bit. The earlier peak/onset of convection is also expected to keep apparent temps below heat advisory criteria at this time. A cold front over the Ohio River Valley today will start to sag southward tonight, approaching northern GA by early Thursday Morning. Some convection ahead of this boundary could attempt to approach interior southeast GA after sunset and into the overnight hours, though likely will not hold together much from about 10PM onward. Lows tonight will be seasonably mild, in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A cold front to the north will slow while pushing into the Southeastern US to end the week. Ahead the front, southwesterly steering flow will increase locally resulting a progressive Gulf (westerly) sea breeze each day while the Atlantic sea breeze becomes pinned. Thursday, widely scattered storms should begin to fire during the late morning hours near the Big Bend and from there will spread northeastward, propagating along the outflow. Activity may become numerous in coverage as the outflow interacts with the Atlantic sea breeze right along the coast during the early afternoon. Appears convection will end swiftly as it pushes offshore and dissipates. Given the background steering winds, a few storms could be strong and produce gusty winds. Given a decent storm motion, the threat of flooding will be minimal. Activity will fade for most of the region but the aforementioned frontal boundary to the north may progress far enough south and continue isolated convection through the evening hours across SE GA. Decent mixing should allow temperatures to push into the 90s but ultimately this could be undercut by convection, depending on the nature of the coverage that develops. Friday, the setup will be similar but southwesterly flow will slacken a bit and allow the Atlantic sea breeze to push inland a bit farther. This will reposition the corridor of highest storm coverage toward the I-95 corridor. More confident on temps pushing into the mid 90s Friday with a later convective initiation. Heat index values return to the upper 100s and Heat Advisories may need to be considered. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 A moist and unstable environment will fuel afternoon thunderstorms through the weekend as ridging rebuilds to the east and steering flow shifts southerly. Convection will be all sea breeze driven through the weekend with highest PoPs focused inland where the sea breeze fronts should collide. Next week, stacked ridging shifts northward and opens the door for a couple of easterly shortwaves to track into and across FL. Tough to pinpoint timing but appears this feature could enhance convective coverage and intensity Monday and possibly Tuesday. Temperatures will be hot and humid, generally in the low 90s but this could be adjusted depending on the convective/cloud coverage, particularly next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Convection is racing toward the JAX Metro area and should be on top of the fields about as I issue the TAFS. Have gone with a four hour TEMPO but that will be front loaded at the beginning of the TAF Period. KGNV, due to proximity to the Gulf, went longer with the TEMPO there. && .MARINE... Issued at 312 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 High pressure ridging will remain persistent through Thursday as the axis changes little in position. The ridge will sink slightly southward Friday and into the weekend as a frontal boundary enters the southeastern states. Mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase in coverage throughout our local waters during this time frame as this boundary stalls to the northwest of the region. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk continues through Thursday with the strengthening onshore flow daily. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 74 92 74 / 50 20 60 40 SSI 92 77 91 79 / 60 30 50 40 JAX 94 76 93 76 / 70 20 60 20 SGJ 93 76 92 77 / 70 20 50 20 GNV 92 75 89 74 / 70 20 60 10 OCF 91 74 91 75 / 70 20 50 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$