Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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521 FXUS62 KJAX 160558 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 158 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 847 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Convection has waned across the entire region with last vestiges puttering out over Suwannee County. The stratiform rain after earlier convection has diminished as well. The current forecast has this well in hand. The overnight lows will in the mid to upper 70s, with mins near 80 on the First Coach Beaches tomorrow morning. The region will be between high pressure from the Atlantic extending across the central peninsula to the eastern Gulf. This pattern will once again yield a moist and unstable south southwest flow. The east coast sea breeze will remain pinned east of the beaches in the morning with prevailing southwesterly flow. It will not be late in the afternoon until the east coast sea breeze meets up with the west coast sea breeze between I-95 and the beaches. Convection is forecast to move into the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor by mid morning and press eastward through the afternoon and evening to the beaches. Heat indices will range in advisory levels again on Tuesday afternoon with maximum values between 106 to 111 degrees. The rain cooled air will be welcomed to temper the heat later in the afternoon. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Afternoon surface analysis depicts the axis of Atlantic high pressure (1024 millibars) extending its axis across the FL peninsula and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Aloft...ridging was centered off FL`s Atlantic coast, or just north of the northwestern Bahamas, while troughing was progressing eastward across the eastern Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Meanwhile, a leftover Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) from widespread thunderstorm activity that occurred last evening along the Interstate 4 corridor in central FL was spinning over the Nature Coast, and this feature was activating scattered convection along the Gulf coast sea breeze along the I-75 corridor as the U.S. Highway 84 corridor across inland southeast GA, especially between Waycross and Jesup. Isolated convection was also developing early this afternoon along other mesoscale boundaries such as the St. Johns River breeze. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates that deep moisture remains in place throughout our region, with PWATS in the 1.9 - 2.2 inch range. Outside of thunderstorm activity, temperatures at 18Z have soared to the low and mid 90s away from the immediate coast, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s creating heat index values that generally ranged from the upper 90s to around Heat Advisory criteria (108 degrees). && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The presence of deep tropical moisture and the aforementioned MCV feature will trigger scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon. Southwesterly low level flow will tend to slow the inland progress of the Atlantic sea breeze this afternoon, setting up a collision of outflow boundaries and eventually the Atlantic and Gulf coast sea breezes for locations between U.S. Highway 301 and Interstate 95 during the late afternoon. Storms may pulse as mesoscale boundaries collide, with stronger activity being capable of producing downburst winds of 40-50 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and locally heavy downpours. Steering flow will remain light, resulting in slow moving storms that could result in localized flooding, especially if activity moves slowly or back-builds over urban or normally flood prone locations. Outflow boundaries will also migrate northward across inland southeast GA this afternoon, where convection may linger past sunset tonight. Debris cloudiness from this afternoon and evening`s convection will gradually thin out overnight, with lows mostly falling to the mid 70s inland, ranging to around 80 at coastal locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The region will be between high pressure to the east, and troughing to the northwest this period. This pattern will yield a prevailing southwest flow. This flow will keep the east coast sea breeze pinned close to shore through much of the afternoons. Convection will initiate Tuesday and Wednesday early afternoon inland on the Gulf sea breeze. This activity will then spread inland through the afternoons, then interact with the east coast sea breeze near the I95 corridor. Convection will dissipate during the evening hours with loss of diurnal heating. Temperatures will be above normal this period. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Early this period high pressure ridge will be centered to the east, with troughing to the northwest. This pattern will continue the prevailing flow from the southwest, with storms initiating early in the afternoon well inland on the Gulf sea breeze, then spreading across area through the afternoon hours, with a collision with east coast breeze around I95 mid to late afternoon. Convection will dissipate each afternoon with loss of diurnal heating. Highs through Friday will remain above normal. The high will build more toward the east northeast over the weekend into early next week. With the change in pattern, the flow will transition from the south on Saturday to from the southeast Sunday and Monday. With the flow more from the south then southeast, the east coast sea breeze will active earlier in the afternoons, with this activity pushing inland during the afternoons. So by Monday, the mid to late afternoons over eastern zones will be largely dry. Temperatures will be closer to seasonal levels from Saturday through Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 151 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR expected to prevail at all terminals except VQQ through the morning hours, where MVFR will be possible at times. Similar diurnal convection will be expected by the afternoon on Tuesday. The sea breeze will be mostly pinned close to the coast, though still expecting enough inland progress for a wind shift at all sites except GNV. VQQ has the most uncertainty with respect to sea breeze wind shift, as it is possible the boundary will not make it that far inland. Similar to Monday, confidence is high enough for TEMPO groups at all sites, featuring MVFR to possible IFR vsby conditions, and gusty downburst winds. Stay tuned throughout the day for timing/impact updates to these groups. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 The axis of Atlantic high pressure will stretch across the Florida peninsula through midweek, keeping a prevailing southerly wind flow in place across our local waters. A few strong thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and early this evening, mainly over the near shore waters, with stronger storms being capable of producing briefly strong wind gusts, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning strikes. Outside of thunderstorm activity, southerly winds will surge this evening before shifting to southwesterly and weakening after midnight. A similar weather pattern will prevail on Tuesday, followed by Atlantic high pressure sinking southward later this week as a frontal boundary enters the southeastern states. Seas of 3-5 feet will prevail both near shore and offshore through Tuesday night. Mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms will increase in coverage throughout our local waters later this week as this boundary stalls to the northwest of our local waters. Seas will diminish to 2-4 feet throughout our local waters towards midweek. Rip Currents: A persistent east-southeasterly ocean swell will combine with breezy onshore winds during the afternoon hours to create a moderate rip current risk at all area beaches through at least midweek. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 95 75 95 75 / 60 20 70 30 SSI 92 79 93 79 / 50 40 60 40 JAX 95 76 96 76 / 70 30 70 30 SGJ 94 77 94 77 / 70 30 60 30 GNV 94 73 93 73 / 80 20 80 20 OCF 95 75 93 75 / 90 30 80 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$