Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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885 FXUS64 KJAN 122006 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 306 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Tonight and Tomorrow... No changes have been made to the forecast for the short term period. The upper level trough to our north will continue to shift off to the east heading into the overnight period as the sfc high over the southwest CONUS remains in a somewhat stationary position. At the same time, a 594dam ridge to our south will exit our forecast area and continue to track eastward towards Alabama. This will allow for a 1019mb sfc high to build across the southeast CONUS. Rain chances will linger into the evening south of Hwy 84 before dissipating. Elsewhere, the northern half of the CWA will remain dry with quiet conditions expected through the night. HREF guidance is hinting at some fog potential south of I-20 later in the overnight period. Nighttime temperatures will drop in the low 70s across the area. Temperatures and dewpoints will gradually increase tomorrow as upper ridging and the aforementioned sfc high builds across the area tomorrow. Gulf moisture will start to creep northward on Saturday and Sunday with some low end pop chances (35-45%) south of I-20. 850mb Temperatures aloft will climb into the low 20s across our forecast area which will result in afternoon highs reaching in the upper 90s. A few spots across the Golden Triangle could see sfc temps in the low 100s. The highest temperatures appear concentrated for along and north of Hwy 82 where dewpoints will peak in the low to mid 70s, and a drier airmass will allow for deeper mixing. A Heat Advisory has been introduce for tomorrow for all of our northeast Louisiana Parishes and portions of southeast, central, southwest, south central and west central MS from 10 AM to 7 PM Saturday evening. The Limited Risk for dangerous heat has been upgraded to an Elevated Risk for areas where the Heat Advisory is in effect. Saturday Night through late next week... Later on Sunday, temperatures and dewpoints will continue to increase across our forecast area with heat indices between 105F- 110F deg range. A heat advisory will likely be needed for this timeframe with a possible extension further northward across the Delta. Heading into the new work week, the sfc high will start to shift east towards Alabama. This will allow for rain chances to make a brief return to the area Monday-Wednesday as Gulf moisture creeps northward across our forecast area. The combination of sfc temps in the upper 90s, afternoon convection, and dewpoints climbing in the mid 70s could yield heat indices greater than 110. No changes have been made to the heat graphic for the Monday-Wednesday timeframe and Elevated Risk for dangerous heat has been maintained in our HWO graphic for our entire CWA. Expect further updates to the heat graphic as we get closer to the new work week. Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be needed for portions of the area early next week, especially in the Delta where dewpoints will hold in the mid to upper 70s. We will continue to carry limited/elevated heat messaging in our HWO for this weekend and early next week. By late next week, future guidance hints at strong upper ridging building over the western CONUS. This will force an upper trough over the eastern CONUS to dig southward. Some of this cooler, drier airmass may make it to our far northern areas, however given the positive tilt orientation of the trough axis, most of the forecast area will remain under a SW flow regime with some decent rain chances possible across the area. With the moisture flow from the Gulf sticking around late next week, heat indices will remain elevated, especially further south. Given the low forecast confidence for the heat later in the week, will hold off heat messaging at this time. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024 Scattered to broken daytime cumulus field is in the VFR range and should thin by around 00Z Saturday. Slow-moving SHRA and TSRA will be possible near the TAF sites south of Interstate 20 through around 01Z Saturday, with the potential for gusty winds and variable conditions near any stronger storms. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 96 76 95 / 0 20 10 50 Meridian 73 99 75 99 / 0 20 0 40 Vicksburg 73 96 76 94 / 0 20 10 40 Hattiesburg 75 97 76 96 / 20 40 10 60 Natchez 73 93 75 93 / 10 40 10 50 Greenville 73 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 20 Greenwood 73 98 76 97 / 0 10 0 20 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ040-041- 047>049-053>055-059>066-072>074. LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026. AR...None. && $$ CR/CR/NF