Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
042 FXUS64 KJAN 071743 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1243 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 949 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A weak frontal zone remains stalled in the region this morning, with southwesterly flow aloft carrying tropical moisture over the boundary and stretching a band of high clouds from the Texas Gulf Coast toward northeast Mississippi. Some light rain was observed coming from this deck. This deck will probably persist into the afternoon and limit peak heating potential for much of the area, but areas south of the cloud deck could still warm into the mid 90s. Moist and dry air wrapping around Tropical Storm Beryl`s circulation are organized into bands, with an organized wave of storms currently approaching the Louisiana coastline at this hour. East of this band, a corridor of drier air spreading north into southeast Louisiana and Mississippi should be a limiting factor for rain chances this afternoon, but latest HRRR runs seem reasonable in depicting a wave or two of showers and storms associated with the moister air wrapping into south-central LA. Elsewhere, it may just be this current light rain and spotty afternoon showers or storms where enough heating can occur. Do not have any increased confidence in heat impacts given the cloudiness present through mid-morning, so will leave current Limited heat risk graphic messaging as is. Locations south of Interstate 20 could see heat index values near 105 degrees. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Today through tonight: A weak frontal boundary continues to focus greater moisture over southern portions of the forecast area as of early this morning, but the front and moisture will lift north later today into tonight to as southerly flow increases downwind of an approaching upper level trough. As a result, showers and storms that develop during peak heating should have greater coverage over the forecast area than yesterday. In addition, there continues to be a limited threat for dangerous heat, and no adjustments were needed for the current heat graphic. Storms are expected to diminish early this evening with loss of heating, and a mostly quiet weather night is in store thereafter. /EC/ Monday through Next Saturday night: TC Beryl will be the main weather influence through early this week as it makes landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast Monday and then weakens as it tracks northeast toward the Lower Mississippi Valley region. By late Monday into Tuesday, the remnants of Beryl should make the closest pass to the forecast area, and this is when low level shear will be greatest. SPC has included a marginal risk for severe storms with damaging wind gusts and perhaps a few brief tornadoes over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Because of drier air that is forecast to wrap around the system, WPC has cut back significantly on QPF for our area, but will maintain the limited flooding threat until this trend becomes definitive. As we go later into the week, the upper level trough will become more centered over our region, and this will help keep moist and unstable air around for continued diurnal convective rainfall coverage. It does appear that the heat may return to greater intensity by the time we start next weekend. /EC/KP/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions with mid to high clouds prevail across most of the area early this afternoon, though locally broken MVFR stratus have been persisting over parts of south MS and central LA. VFR conditions are expected to prevail in most areas through the remainder of the TAF period with increasing mid/high cloudiness overnight. Scattered SHRA and TS may result in localized brief categorical reductions this afternoon through early evening. There is also some potential for a brief period of low stratus around daybreak Sunday morning across parts of south MS but confidence was too low to include in TAFs at this time. /DL/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 75 95 75 92 / 30 20 20 70 Meridian 74 96 73 94 / 30 30 20 70 Vicksburg 75 95 75 90 / 30 40 30 60 Hattiesburg 75 96 77 92 / 20 20 20 80 Natchez 75 94 76 90 / 40 50 30 70 Greenville 76 94 75 88 / 20 20 40 60 Greenwood 76 95 75 91 / 20 20 30 70 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ NF/EC/KP/DL