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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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771 FXUS64 KJAN 161744 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 954 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Morning WV imagery show a narrow mid/upper trough axis extending from SW to NE over the area and continues to cut off in the upper levels around east TX/west LA. The rest of the morning will be relatively quiet as 12Z morning sounding observations show limited moisture in the low levels, with a strong capped environment near the mid levels (especially near 700mb). The main bulk of convection today will hold off until later this afternoon with the best rain/storm chances (around 35%) across E/SE portions of MS. Cloud cover will be generally clear mainly for areas west of I-55. Meanwhile, areas east of I-55 will start to see some mid-high clouds later this afternoon. Daytime temperatures will peak in the upper 90s across our forecast area with heat indices between 105-110 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire area until 8 PM this evening for our entire forecast area including portions of southeast Arkansas, and all of our northeast Louisiana parishes. /CR/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 AM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Through tonight: For the near term, we will remain locked in a familiar pattern from the past few days. A narrow shortwave mid/upper trough axis, evident in current WV imagery, still extends from SW to NE over the area and is beginning to cut off in the upper levels around east TX/west LA. Ahead of these features, there continues to be a seasonably moist airmass over much of the area. We are beginning the morning with festering isolated showers and TS across parts of central and east MS which are being instigated by this feature. However, once again the bulk of convection today will hold off until maximum heating this afternoon, lingering into the early evening as instability slowly wanes. As has been seen in recent days, there will be some potential for a stronger storm or two given the abundance of instability, but the threat is limited enough to not highlight with a formal severe weather outlook at this time. Meanwhile, heat stress continues to be the primary concern, with heat indices likely to rise into the 105-110F range again today. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the entire area. /DL/ Wednesday through next Tuesday... Wednesday will spark the beginning of a pattern change across the region, with a low level ridge maximizing across the southeast CONUS ahead of an upper trough expected to extend southwards into the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. Increased heights and westerly flow will prompt dangerous heat conditions across the region, with highs in the upper 90s and lows in the lower to middle 70s on Wednesday. heat indices are expected to climb into the triple digits, with some areas having the potential to exceed 110 degrees. Expect a Heat Advisory as an "Elevated" Risk for dangerous heat stress is being advertised. By Thursday, the ridge will break down as a broad trough dips southwards, bring increased potentials for scattered to numerous showers and storms, along with more seasonable temperatures through the weekend. PWATS will be abnormally high along the coast, with values exceeding 2.5 inches at times. The potential for flash flooding will continue to be monitored for this weekend. By Sunday into the new work week, low level ridging will begin to build in from the southeast, which will allow temperatures to begin to increase into the work week. Highs will range in the lower to middle 90s through Monday, with heat indices reaching up to 105 for areas in the southern portions of the CWA. Rain chances will remain scattered to numerous, as a frontal boundary hangs up near the Gulf Coast and looks to keep a fairly moist, tropical- like layer across the south through Tuesday. /AJ/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR ceilings and conditions will prevail across all TAF sites to start off the period. SHRA and -TSRA will be possible across east and southeast MS starting around 20Z Tuesday and will last through 02Z Wednesday, which could lead to a few TAF sites (mainly MEI) with sub-VFR conditions. Rain chances will begin to diminish by 02Z Wednesday with quiet conditions expected through the overnight period. Scattered SHRA and TS with brief wind gusts will be possible 18Z Wednesday especially across east and southeast MS. /CR/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 76 97 75 92 / 10 50 40 90 Meridian 74 97 73 93 / 20 60 40 90 Vicksburg 76 97 74 91 / 10 20 30 80 Hattiesburg 76 97 76 94 / 30 60 20 90 Natchez 75 95 75 92 / 10 30 20 80 Greenville 77 97 73 86 / 0 30 50 70 Greenwood 76 97 73 88 / 0 40 60 80 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074. LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075. && $$ DL/AJ/CR