857
FXUS63 KIWX 161056
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
656 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

* There are low chances (20-30%) for a few showers and storms today
  into Wednesday. Severe storms are not expected.

* Dry weather, seasonable temperatures and lower humidity
  midweek through this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Mature MCV now into southeast MI has forced an active trailing
composite outflow boundary south into central IN/IL. This will
likely remain the focus for more additional activity today into
tonight, though will have to monitor for widely scattered convection
to redevelop locally as moderate diurnal instability takes place on
the northern fringe of the stable bubble and incoming synoptic cold
front. Shear and instability parameters do not support organized
severe convection. Dry and seasonably humid otherwise today.

An upper level trough will amplify southeast through the Great Lakes
Wednesday into Wednesday night with low chances for a few additional
showers along the associated synoptic cold front. A low level
anticyclone then follows in behind this front through this
weekend with comfortable humidity and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 654 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Outflow along with storms have moved well south of the
terminals. Some patchy lower clouds should scatter out early
this morning. Some storm regeneration is possible today with
residual moisture and daytime heating. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Skipper