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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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732 FXUS63 KIND 201651 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 1251 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and pleasant this weekend - Seasonable warmth and increasing humidity returns by late this weekend - Chances for rain/t-storms and increasing clouds next week may help keep temperatures slightly below normal && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 942 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Forecast is in good shape this morning. Expect a gradual increase in high clouds along with some cumulus development, leading to partly cloudy skies. Tweaked sky cover to match trends seen on latest satellite images. High temperatures look good, so only adjusted the hourly temperature forecasts to match trends in observations. && .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Mainly clear skies present over central Indiana early this morning with just a few small pockets with clouds. With light N/NE winds... 06Z temperatures were predominantly in the upper 50s and lower 60s. The high pressure ridge extending from the Great Lakes back southwest into the Ozarks will remain as the prominent feature influencing weather across the region through tonight. Cloud coverage will increase however...especially late tonight as deeper moisture advects into the Ohio Valley from the west. Localized stratocu will linger across the Wabash Valley especially through daybreak as low level moisture to our southwest gets pulled north. This should limit most if not all fog potential towards sunrise although yet again the Wabash Valley is the favored location with higher dewpoints. Winds within the boundary layer will veer through the morning that will shut down the moisture at 850mb advecting north currently. That combined with broad mid level subsidence will limit overall cloud coverage through the afternoon with diurnal cu again developing during peak heating. Surface winds will remain light from the north and northeast as the forecast area sits on the south flank of the surface ridge. Mid and high level clouds will gradually increase from the west overnight as moisture pools within a weak and poorly organized upper wave moving out of the central Plains. Northerly flow in the low levels and lingering subsidence noted within the 800-600mb layer will mitigate any concerns for precipitation through much of the rest of the weekend...but the arrival of moisture aloft will lead to increased cloud coverage for Sunday and a subtle increase in humidity levels. Temps...low level thermals support a seasonable day with highs in the low to mid 80s for the forecast area. Dewpoints will remain in the 50s again today keeping the airmass comfortable. Lows tonight will be a bit warmer in the low and mid 60s as the airmass further modifies and clouds increase. && .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Most guidance shows upper ridging remaining dominant across the western CONUS during the extended period with troughing further east. Initially at the surface, high pressure centered over the region will continue to provide dry conditions on Sunday. A noticeable increase in mid-high clouds is likely due to an approaching upper low. Precipitation is not expected during the day because forecast soundings show considerable dry air in the low-mid levels. Gradual saturation of the column may be sufficient for a few light sprinkles. Despite increasing clouds, deep mixing will allow for highs to return to near seasonal by the end of the weekend. Weakening high pressure heading into the start of the work week will allow for deeper moisture to begin returning northward. Expect increasing humidity and chances for precipitation as a result. The main uncertainty for rain chances lies in how much forcing will be present next week. A weakening upper low is likely going to be centered near the area. This combined with moisture advection ands daytime heating could support scattered convection on Monday. There is a better signal in guidance for stronger synoptic forcing from another upper wave Tuesday-Wednesday. This combined with continued moisture advection supports greater rain chances during this timeframe. Diurnal heating of an anomalously moist environment should help provide greater coverage of convection during peak heating, especially Monday when upper level forcing is very weak. Models begin to diverge late week though the pattern could remain unsettled with moisture still in place and the potential for additional disturbances to move through. Temperatures are expected to be near or slightly below normal next week. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1251 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Impacts - No impacts expected Discussion: Scattered to broken VFR cumulus along with some high clouds will continue into the early evening hours. For the overnight, mid and high clouds will increase across the area, and these will continue into the day Sunday. Some cumulus may return on Sunday as well. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...50 SHORT TERM...Ryan LONG TERM...Melo AVIATION...50