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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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573 FXUS63 KIND 181029 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 629 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and mild conditions will make for a pleasant end of the week - Seasonable warmth and moderate humidity to return early next week, with mainly low chances of rain/t-storms starting Monday && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 The short term will span what will be some of the mildest conditions of the midsummer, as a positively-tilted, yet pronounced upper trough crossing southeastern Canada...drags its trailing axis across central Indiana today. Upper 50s have already observed as of 235A this morning at Crawfordsville and Muncie, under clear skies that will continue to slowly advance southeastward south of Interstate 70 through the early morning hours. Northerly winds, out of a rather strong and very slow-approaching dome of Canadian high pressure, will trend from a light breeze early today up to afternoon gusts around 15 mph. This cold-advective flow will maintain noticeably lower dewpoints of 55-60F, while only allowing readings to rebound into the mid to upper 70s despite abundant July sunshine...which should yield to at least a FEW afternoon cumulus with forecast maxima across the region a few degrees above 21Z convective temperatures. Tonight will be the coolest of the 7-day forecast period for most locations with winds diminishing while veering to northeasterly under mainly clear skies. Expect temperatures to drop into the low 50s over much of the CWA`s northern half, with lows closer to 55F south of I-70. The biggest story, past it being the coolest morning since the near-50F marks early on July 1st...will likely be patchy fog, favored along the East Fork White valley where slightly higher dewpoints may hang on, and the Upper Wabash Valley where cooler temperatures slowly spilling out from the broad northern surface high will drain. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Dry and rather mild weather will continue through the first half of the long term as the broad and strong upstream upper ridge slows the synoptic pattern, maintaining surface high pressure over much of eastern North America. The ridge will be in no hurry to leave the local region, with its center only beginning to cross the southern Great Lakes Friday. A gradual moderation back towards seasonal levels is expected through the weekend, with partly to mostly clear skies through at least Saturday guiding mornings about 5 degrees below normal. Sunday should be a transition back to a more humid column, promoted by a small wave plunging around the amplified western ridge and into the central CONUS...with mid-level southerly flow on its downstream side increasing clouds into the Midwest. Nonetheless, expect boundary layer readings to stay near/below normal courtesy what should be lingering, yet light northeasterly flow, as more seasonable moderate humidity slowly returns. More southerly low- level winds during the Monday-Wednesday timeframe will return at least low-chances of showers and t-storms...albeit amid reasonable temperatures for July with H850 marks around 15 degrees Celsius, as the main subtropical ridge stays suppressed well to our south/west. best chances for rain will be towards the end of the long term as the next approaching wave favors greater precipitable water and moderate forcing into the Midwest. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 628 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Impacts: None Discussion: VFR will predominate through Friday morning. Broad high pressure centered near the Twin Cities early this morning will continue to slowly build into central Indiana through the TAF period amid northerly low-level flow. Clear skies this morning will yield FEW/SCT high-based cumulus by late day. Expect gusts this afternoon up to 13-16KT...with flow diminishing this evening before veering slowly to northeasterly by 12Z Friday. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...AGM LONG TERM...AGM AVIATION...AGM