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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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410 FXUS63 KIND 070945 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 545 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly Sunny and warmer Today - Mostly Clear Tonight - Increasing confidence in impacts from Beryl Tuesday night into Wednesday with potential for heavy rain and gusty winds && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Surface analysis early this morning shows a strong and large area of high pressure centered over Indiana, OH and KY. This strong high extended its influence northeast to New England and southwest to Arkansas and eastern TX. Water vapor imagery showed a broad trough in place across the CONUS, with a stream of subsidence stretching from the American southwest to Indiana and the eastern Great Lakes. An upper low was found over western MN. GOES16 shows mostly clear skies over Indiana, but some high cloud was found near the Ohio River. Today and Tonight... Quiet weather is expected today and tonight. The large high over Indiana is expected to push farther east to the east coast, allowing for warmer, southerly return flow to become predominate across Central Indiana. Meanwhile the pattern aloft is expected to remain relatively unchanged, although the trough axis over the plains is expected to deepen. This will still keep southwest flow in place across Central Indiana today and tonight with subsidence in play. Forecast soundings once again today suggest convective temperatures will be reached leading to some scattered diurnal CU. Thus a mostly sunny day is expected. Given the warm air advection, highs today will be a bit warmer, reaching the middle and upper 80s. Clear skies will be expected again tonight as forecast soundings continue to show a dry column under the influence of the high pressure system to the east and subsidence aloft. After heating is lost, diurnal CU will be lost leading to mostly clear skies with lows in the middle to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 238 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Monday and Tuesday. The warming trend will continue into Monday as the broad high pressure that had been in place through the early weekend gradually begins to break down ahead of the next rain producing system. Plenty of sun combined will allow for temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80s. With the high pressure nearly overhead, there will be little relief in terms of a breeze with near calm winds. There should be at least some diurnal cu during the mid to late afternoon hours which may provide some relief but with dewpoints only in the mid 60s, the overall heat threat is minimal. A broad trough will slowly exit the Central Plains late Monday night but the 00Z model guidance has held onto the trends that began with the 12Z runs in keeping this system more across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region with the approaching remnants of Beryl preventing the more progressive motion than had been previously expected. Wednesday Through Saturday. Focus after Tuesday will be on tropical moisture from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. As previously mentioned, models have been trending a more northerly track for the hurricane with a fairly substantial northerly push compared to how things looked 24 hours ago. There is currently quite good model agreement in the track and timing of the remnants with central Indiana well within the potential bullseye for the heaviest rain. As the remnants get ingested into the upper level jet, it will begin to act more like a stereotypical upper level low with the heaviest rain to the northwest of the surface low where a tight band of frontogenesis should create a swath of 3-5 inches of rain. The exact timing and location of this swath remains uncertain, but there is good model agreement that it could be somewhere in the Upper Wabash Valley Tuesday night. Will continue to monitor forecast trends in the track for a potential Flood Watch if models remain consistent. In addition to areal flooding, river flooding would also be a concern on the higher end QPF scenario with MMEFs ensembles showing minor flooding being likely in that higher end scenario. Tight pressure gradients should also allow for wind gusts to 25-35 mph. The system will be fairly progressive and exit central Indiana by late Wednesday with fairly benign weather for the latter portions of the week into the weekend. There could be some lingering light showers on the backend, but otherwise expect near to slightly below normal temperatures for Thursday with a gradual warm up back to near 90 by the weekend. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 545 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Impacts: - Brief fog possible at outlying terminals until 13Z - Otherwise VFR for much of the period. Discussion: Brief MVFR Fog at BMG will quickly burn off this morning as heating and mixing resumes. Overall there is little change from the previous TAF issuance. Clear skies are expected to start the day as high pressure centered over Indiana and Ohio will remain in control. Return flow will develop later today as the center of the high shifts east. Expect light S/SW winds during the afternoon with diurnal VFR cu developing again. Overall, ongoing TAF`s handle this well. As CU is lost tonight with sunset, mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected to continue. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM...White AVIATION...Puma