051
FXUS63 KIND 051901
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
301 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms ending late this afternoon.

- Not as humid Saturday with seasonably warm temperatures.

- Rain chances return late Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

A cold front, moving into the Wabash Valley, will sweep across
central Indiana this afternoon before moving into Ohio late in the
day. Meanwhile, an upper trough, over the western Great Lakes, will
weaken and pivot northeast into northern Ontario on Saturday.
Surface high pressure will build in from the west and provide
subsidence tonight and Saturday. Hi-Res soundings are showing nice
drying tonight and Saturday which will result in clearing skies save
some diurnal fair weather cu Saturday afternoon per cu development
progs. Prior to that, frontal forcing, weak to moderate CAPE and 40-
50 knot deep bulk shear could support a few strong to severe storms,
the remainder of the afternoon, over areas roughly along and east of
US-31. However, so far, lightningcast is not high on imminent
lightning, but the RBC day convection satellite loop was suggesting
glaciation wasn`t far off.

Post frontal dew points in the upper 50s to middle 60s and nice
radiation cooling should result in overnight lows in the upper 50s
to middle 60s. Hi-Res models were not keying in on any fog as the
boundary layer dries out. However, would not rule out some shallow
fog in areas that receive decent rainfall through the afternoon.
Will take another look on the evening shift before adding any,
however.

Plenty of sunshine under high pressure should allow temperatures to
at least come close to normal Saturday with highs in the upper 70s
to middle 80s looking good per DESI.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Dry weekend ahead but daily chances for showers and storms return
next week.

Broad upper troughing remains over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes
region through the majority of the period placing Indiana within
southwesterly flow just ahead of the trough axis. Multiple waves
riding around the trough next week in addition to Gulf moisture
directed northeastward into the Ohio Valley will bring daily chances
for showers and storms beginning late Monday.

Dry and quiet conditions Sunday as the area remains under the
influence of low level ridging and high pressure to the northeast.
Warm air advection and flow turning southwesterly aloft will result
in highs reaching the mid to upper 80s across the region. Skies will
remain mostly clear through Sunday night before the pattern shifts
going into Monday.

Troughing approaches from the northwest on Monday; however most of
the energy and lift will still be further west most of there day.
Expect mainly dry conditions for the first half of the day with
chances for rain increasing Monday evening and Monday night. Models
are suggesting a localized area of convergence where higher
precipitation amounts are likely, but there remains quite a bit of
model spread as to where exactly that settles.  There is some model
clustering across the upper Wabash Valley for this axis, but it may
be as far north as the Chicago area or as far south as south central
Indiana. Instability will be the limiting factor keeping the severe
potential to near zero.

Forecast confidence then falls off Wednesday into the end of the
week. Guidance keeps upper troughing west of the state with upper
level southwesterly flow from Texas to the lower Great Lakes. A
lower level boundary also seems to set up from Texas through the
Ohio Valley where Gulf moisture will be directed northward. Remnants
of Hurricane Beryl will also be directed along this boundary
northward likely increasing rainfall coverage and intensity in that
area. Due to lower confidence with the track of Beryl and where this
boundary could ends up, there is a lot of uncertainty with finer
details and where the heaviest rainfall axis develops. Currently it
looks like the boundary and axis of heaviest rainfall could stay
along and south of the Ohio River, but keeping low PoPs each day to
account for uncertainty. Skies will likely be on the cloudier side,
especially in southern portions of the state as moisture streams in
over the boundary, so kept temperatures a tad below guidance in the
low to mid 80s through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 113 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Impacts:

- MVFR conditions in thunderstorms through 20z at KIND and KBMG

- MVFR/VFR ceilings through 01z

Discussion:

Visible satellite, radar, obs and Hi-Res soundings support bkn
afternoon diurnal VFR or brief MVFR cu as well as the potential of
MVFR flying conditions in thunderstorms through late afternoon over
mainly KIND and KBMG. Otherwise, high pressure will build in tonight
and combine with a dry column to support VFR conditions. Cu
development progs suggest more diurnal cu will form Saturday
afternoon.

Winds will be from the west less than 10 knots in the wake of a cold
front that was move across from west to east.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...MK