![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
215 FXUS63 KILX 152330 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 630 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Main window for severe weather tonight is expected between 9 pm and 2 am, with scattered wind damage the primary concern. - Some shower and storm activity will linger Friday and Saturday, as a slow moving upper low drifts across the Great Lakes. - An extended period of cooler conditions is expected Saturday into the middle of next week, with temperatures about 5-8 degrees below seasonal normals. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Friday Afternoon) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Lingering showers early this afternoon have finally been showing more of a diminishing trend, with most of the activity now around Champaign and Danville. Some clearing has occurred over western Illinois into adjacent areas of Missouri, allowing surface based CAPE`s to reach around 3000 J/kg per recent SPC mesoanalysis. Convective initiation is expected over central Iowa and north central Missouri over the next few hours, which should arrive in western Illinois toward 9-10 pm. A few of the CAM`s have also been showing development over south central Illinois late in the afternoon, and surface analysis does show a weak north/south boundary roughly near Vandalia, which could be a source of initiation. Will keep the lower (30%) PoP`s going in that area for that reason, with most of the PoP adjustments focused on the timing of the main convection later in the evening. Latest Day1 convective outlook maintains a level 2 risk of severe weather, with the main window focused between 9 pm and 2 am. Upper currently over northeast North Dakota is progged to move to central Wisconsin by Friday afternoon. Much of the convective activity should be out of our area early Friday morning, but a few storms can`t be ruled out late afternoon or early evening as the attendant surface boundary swings through the region. Think the best chance of this occurring will be near and north of I-74 near a small lower level jet max dropping into northern Illinois. With the slower arrival of the main cold front, temperatures Friday should still reach the mid 80s. However, some drier air will begin to work in during the afternoon, easing the heat index back a bit. Geelhart .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 Upper level progression of systems will be slow through the weekend, as Hurricane Ernesto lifts northward across the western Atlantic. This will result in the upper ridge amplifying across the Rockies. Broad troughing will continue over the eastern U.S. into early next week. Between these two, northwest flow into the Midwest will provide a cooler weather pattern that persists through this period. Highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees are expected, with dew points dropping into the 50s by early Monday. Rain-wise, the slow progression of the upper low over the Great Lakes will provide a risk of scattered showers on Saturday and perhaps into early Sunday, with surface high pressure providing dry conditions after that. Geelhart && .AVIATION... (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 630 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2024 VFR conditions and southerly winds will be in place this evening as thunderstorms develop over Iowa and Missouri. These storms will move across central Illinois overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected to linger behind the storms for several hours Friday morning. Winds will set up out of the west mid to late Friday morning and conditions should return to VFR the remainder of the period. Deubelbeiss && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$