024
FXUS63 KILX 041720
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Slightly below normal temperatures settle in today, with highs
  in the low to mid 80s for the next several days. Normals for the
  first week of July are in the upper 80s for central and
  southeaster Illinois.

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms today. 60-80% POPs south of
  I-74 this morning. A dry period this afternoon and evening,
  with the next round coming in after 10pm (40-60% chance).

- A mostly dry weekend ahead. The next potential for precipitation
  comes Sunday afternoon (30-40% chance) into the new week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Shortwave trough is lifting across central Illinois this hour with
the back edge of the main precip shield starting to work across the
lower Illinois River Valley with precip expected to end across most
of central Illinois by early to mid afternoon. Attention will turn
northwest to the next shortwave/closed upper low digging across the
Upper Midwest, though expect this will not begin to impact portions
of central Illinois until late this evening (close to midnight).

Deubelbeiss

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Happy Independence Day! Comfortable temperatures settle in today
behind the departing cold front, with highs in the low to mid 80s.
More rain chances are on the books for today. The positive part of
it is that not the entire day will be rainy. In fact, the dry part
of the day for central and southeastern Illinois is during the
afternoon into the evening hours, when celebrations are taking
place. This morning, there is a 60-80% chance of showers and
thunderstorms primarily for areas south of I-74. POPs significantly
drop for the afternoon and early evening (20-40%). The second round
of precipitation today comes around 10pm tonight, when POPs rebound
to 40-60%.

There are PWATS near 1.5 inches for today. QPF amounts aren`t
insane, with trace to 0.2 inches north of I-72 and 0.5 to 1.3 inches
south of I-72. The highest totals today are more likely to occur
south of I-70. However, the 00z HREF shows only a 10% chance of
greater than an inch south of I-70 and 50-60% chance of greater
than 0.10 inches forecast area wide.

After today, ridging builds over the Midwest, keeping temperatures
slightly below normal for the extended period. CPC has us in a near
to leaning below normal temperature outlook for the next 6-10 days.
Normals for the first week of July are in the upper 80s for central
and southeaster Illinois. HIghs through the extended are in the low
to mid 80s. Lows are expected range in the 60s.

Rain chances return Sunday afternoon into Monday as a weak
disturbance passes through. The highest chances occur during the day
Monday with 40-50% POPs.

Stay safe this 4th of July!

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Showers will taper off across central Illinois in the wake of a
shortwave trough lifting into Indiana early this afternoon.
Conditions should remain VFR the rest of today, but the I-72
corridor may briefly see MVFR at times over the next few hours.
Additional showers and storms are possible overnight, but favored
to stay south of the terminals. Light winds in place this
afternoon will set up out of the south this evening and tonight
followed by northwest Friday morning. Expect gusts around 20 kt to
develop mid to late Friday morning.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$