Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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903 FXUS61 KILN 090133 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 933 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak trough will develop across the area. This is ahead of the remnants of Beryl which are forecast to track from southwest Indiana to Lake Erie Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure will then build in for Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... Scattered showers off to our southeast should continue to weaken as they lift northeast this evening into a more stable airmass across our area. That being said, suppose it will tough to rule out a slight chance of a few showers sneaking into our far southwest over the next few hours. Otherwise, mainly expect to see just a continued increase in mid and high level clouds overnight. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... Inverted trough across the region at the beginning of the period will become more pronounced during the day as the remnants of Beryl move northeast. This boundary will become an effective warm front and lift as the center of the low circulation moves into eastern Indiana by daybreak Wednesday. With backed winds and gradually increasing flow, hodographs will take on a favorable orientation. In addition, LCLs are forecast to lower as the atmospheric column moistens. It may be too moist to have much instability or thunder, but conditions could become favorable for tornadoes, as can typically happen on the eastern side of tropical remnants. This is highly conditional, but will have to be watched closely heading into Tuesday afternoon and evening. Expect to see showers and some thunderstorms develop into the forecast area on Tuesday afternoon and become widespread generally north and west of I-71 Tuesday night. South and east of there precipitation may be more transient and not necessarily occurring everywhere. Given the track of the low center, widespread heavy rain is not a substantial concern, especially given the generally dry antecedent conditions. But with tropical moisture, cannot discount the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Expect a relatively strong gradient in temperatures on Tuesday with highs in the lower 80s in eastern Indiana but still reaching the lower 90s in south central Ohio and northeast Kentucky. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Gusty winds will be likely on Wednesday as the remnants of Beryl move through the region. While there are still some minor differences on location of the low, in general it looks to come near northwestern portions of the forecast area before continuing to move to the northeast. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible as the system moves through on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler closer to the low across northwestern portions of the region. Have high temperatures ranging from the lower 70s across the northwest to middle 80s across the southeast. On Thursday the temperatures will be a little more uniform with highs in the low to middle 80s. Some additional isolated thunderstorms are possible on Thursday as a weak disturbance moves through. Warm temperatures will be in place the remainder of the long term with highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values by Monday will approach advisory levels in some spots, however will be dependent on if precipitation will hold off. Friday looks dry at this time. With the heat and humidity over the weekend there will be off and on chances for thunderstorm activity. There has been some variability in the models with keying in on specific times and therefore limited precipitation chances to the chance category. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A fair amount of mid and high level clouds will overspread the region tonight ahead of the remnants of Beryl. This will likely help mitigate BR development at KLUK so will only include a tempo MVFR group there for a few hour period late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the remnants of Beryl will overspread our area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will result in an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...JGL SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION...JGL