903
FXUS61 KILN 090133
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
933 PM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will develop across the area. This is ahead of the
remnants of Beryl which are forecast to track from southwest
Indiana to Lake Erie Tuesday night and Wednesday. High pressure
will then build in for Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Scattered showers off to our southeast should continue to
weaken as they lift northeast this evening into a more stable
airmass across our area. That being said, suppose it will tough
to rule out a slight chance of a few showers sneaking into our
far southwest over the next few hours. Otherwise, mainly expect
to see just a continued increase in mid and high level clouds
overnight. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Inverted trough across the region at the beginning of the period
will become more pronounced during the day as the remnants of
Beryl move northeast. This boundary will become an effective
warm front and lift as the center of the low circulation moves
into eastern Indiana by daybreak Wednesday. With backed winds
and gradually increasing flow, hodographs will take on a
favorable orientation. In addition, LCLs are forecast to lower
as the atmospheric column moistens. It may be too moist to have
much instability or thunder, but conditions could become
favorable for tornadoes, as can typically happen on the eastern
side of tropical remnants. This is highly conditional, but will
have to be watched closely heading into Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

Expect to see showers and some thunderstorms develop into the
forecast area on Tuesday afternoon and become widespread
generally north and west of I-71 Tuesday night. South and east
of there precipitation may be more transient and not necessarily
occurring everywhere.

Given the track of the low center, widespread heavy rain is not
a substantial concern, especially given the generally dry
antecedent conditions. But with tropical moisture, cannot
discount the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

Expect a relatively strong gradient in temperatures on Tuesday
with highs in the lower 80s in eastern Indiana but still
reaching the lower 90s in south central Ohio and northeast
Kentucky. Lows will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Gusty winds will be likely on Wednesday as the remnants of Beryl
move through the region.  While there are still some minor
differences on location of the low, in general it looks to come near
northwestern portions of the forecast area before continuing to move
to the northeast.  Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible
as the system moves through on Wednesday.  Temperatures on Wednesday
will be cooler closer to the low across northwestern portions of the
region.  Have high temperatures ranging from the lower 70s across
the northwest to middle 80s across the southeast.

On Thursday the temperatures will be a little more uniform with
highs in the low to middle 80s.  Some additional isolated
thunderstorms are possible on Thursday as a weak disturbance moves
through.

Warm temperatures will be in place the remainder of the long term
with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.  Heat index values by Monday
will approach advisory levels in some spots, however will be
dependent on if precipitation will hold off. Friday looks dry at
this time. With the heat and humidity over the weekend there will be
off and on chances for thunderstorm activity. There has been some
variability in the models with keying in on specific times and
therefore limited precipitation chances to the chance category.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A fair amount of mid and high level clouds will overspread the
region tonight ahead of the remnants of Beryl. This will likely
help mitigate BR development at KLUK so will only include a
tempo MVFR group there for a few hour period late tonight into
early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, the remnants of Beryl will
overspread our area Tuesday into Tuesday night. This will result
in an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms later
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible
Tuesday night into Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL