Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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996 FXUS61 KILN 101853 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 253 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The remnants of Tropical System Beryl will migrate away from the region tonight, with seasonably mild conditions returning to the area. Although there will be a chance for a stray shower or storm Thursday into the weekend, most spots may stay dry. Warmer and more humid air will return to the region toward early next week, but that will coincide with greater chances for more widespread storm chances again. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... The remnants of Beryl have transitioned to a ~1003mb extratropical low that is progressing to the E through the nrn OH Vly and beginning to pull away from the local area. Within this broad/strong cyclonic flow, shallow yet sufficient moisture has led to patches of light SHRA/sprinkles/drizzle that continue to pivot around the low center, providing on-and-off very light RA to many spots near/N of the OH Rvr thus far today. This activity will begin to shift off to the E, with a few lingering SHRA back on the wrn fringes of the cloud shield (stretching from EC IN through the Tri-State into N KY) where some sunshine is aiding in just enough instby to allow for additional ISO SHRA to develop. A few very light SHRA and sprinkles may continue in these areas into early evening. The main story for today has been the unseasonably breezy/gusty conditions, owing to a relatively tight pressure gradient positioned across the area. SW winds of 20-25 MPH, with gusts 35-40 MPH, should begin to taper off late afternoon into early afternoon, with winds quickly subsiding after sunset. Extensive cloud cover remains draped across the area, although there are a few breaks within the stratocu deck beginning to emerge in the SW third of the ILN FA. These breaks should continue to expand and creep to the E into early evening, allowing for cloudy skies to trend partly sunny for most of the area by sunset. Temps will dip from the lower/mid 70s this afternoon to the lower/mid 60s by daybreak Thursday. There may be some patchy FG, especially in area river valleys and in locales where it is able to clear completely late tonight. However, did not yet have confidence to add to the fcst. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Although sfc high pressure will attempt to build into the region tonight into early Thursday, it will be edged out by the approach of a weak S/W pivoting to the ESE into the OH Vly by daybreak Thursday. This feature, while quite weak, will provide enough forcing amidst a still-amply-saturated environment to initiate a few SHRA that may find their way into far W/NW parts of the ILN FA by the afternoon. This disorganized activity, which is sprouting now upstream off to our NW, will slowly drift to the SE closer to the local area by early Thursday afternoon, so have added a slight chance PoPs in EC IN, WC OH, and parts of the Tri-State to account for this potential. Even with this being said, most locales will remain dry through the short term period, with the best potential for a few rogue SHRA near/W of I-75. Temps rebound into the lower/mid 80s before dipping into the mid/upper 60s Thursday night with slightly more humid air attempting to move back into the area from the W through the short term period. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There will be a low chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday ahead of a disturbance pushing across the Great Lakes. Mainly dry weather is expected for Saturday under high pressure. Additional weak disturbances interacting with an unstable airmass may trigger a few storms Sunday through Tuesday. A greater threat for showers and storms may exist on Wednesday when a cold front is forecast to be the focus for convective development. Temperatures remaining quite warm will start with highs in the mid and upper 80s on Friday. Readings will rise to the upper 80s to low 90s Saturday and Sunday, then to the low and mid 90s Monday and Tuesday. Some locations could see apparent temps around 100. A retreat to the low 80s to low 90s is indicated for Wednesday as the cold front moves in. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A blanket of borderline MVFR/IFR CIGs remains draped across the local area for the start of the TAF period, even as some breaks in the cloud cover attempt to work E into the local area by/past 21z. There should be a slow clearing trend from W to E between about 21z-03z, with central OH sites of KCMH/KLCK the last to see conditions return to VFR. Within the blanket of stratocu are patches of -DZ and very light SHRA, which continue to intermittently impact KDAY/KILN with MVFR/IFR VSBYs. Do expect that this activity may begin to shift/pivot a bit more to the E past 21z, impacting KCMH/KLCK for late afternoon into early evening before dry/VFR conditions return area-wide by/shortly after 00z. Gusty WNW winds continue about the area, with sustained winds of 15-20kts and gusts to 25-30kts at times. The pressure gradient will begin to relax slowly through the first few hours of the TAF period, with gusts tapering off from W to E in the several hour period around 00z. Winds will go to generally 5kts or less (or even light/VRB) past 06z, which may help promote the development of some river valley BR/FG at KLUK. Did not have confidence to go below IFR VSBYs at the site for now, but do think there is the potential for LIFR or lower VSBYs with some FG in the several hours around daybreak at KLUK. There will be some patchy ISO/SCT convective/SHRA redevelopment, initially off to the W of the local area, Thursday afternoon, which may migrate close to KCVG/KLUK/KDAY by 00z Friday. COnfidence was too low at this juncture to even add a VC, but it is mentioned here for awareness purposes. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KC NEAR TERM...KC SHORT TERM...KC LONG TERM...Coniglio AVIATION...KC