285
FXUS61 KILN 141708
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
108 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the middle
of the week. Multiple disturbances will move through and then a
cold front will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Warm temperatures will also be in place until the passage of the
cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
The patchy fog from earlier has since dissipated, with some
convectively-induced clouds lingering across far nrn parts of WC
OH into central OH this morning. Elsewhere, mainly clear skies
will continue through the next few hours before some diurnally-
driven Cu sprout about once again by late morning into early
afternoon.

There is increasing concern this morning that the potential for
more widespread strong to severe storms may evolve this
afternoon into early evening. One weakening MCS across NW OH
will continue to migrate to the ESE, posing little threat as it
moves away from the pooling of better LL moisture/instby back to
the W across parts of IN into far wrn OH. Robust destabilization
is expected across at least the wrn/NW 2/3 of the ILN FA into
early afternoon, with the early afternoon environment
characterized by MLCAPE ~2000+ J/kg across parts of the area.
This development of strong instby will be aided by broad SW
flow, helping advect in richer LL moisture into many spots
near/N of the OH Rvr (and especially near/N of I-71) through
the afternoon. With a destabilizing environment ahead of a
MCS/SE-propagating boundary into nrn/central IN/IL early this
afternoon, there should be good support for
re-intensification/redevelopment of convection along the
leading edge of the complex past noon. Given the cold pool
environment already established with the activity upstream, it
is likely that the complex will maintain a linear, or perhaps
bowing, shape as it progresses into the local area, posing a
broad-scale gusty to damaging wind threat as it translates to
the SE through during the heart of the mid/late afternoon hours.
The current thinking is that the most favorable areas to be
impacted by these storms will be near/N of the OH Rvr, angling
from WNW to ESE with its progression. This activity should
eventually wane with SE extent into early evening, perhaps
redeveloping more on the southern flank toward the Tri-State
toward the best instby.

But before we even get to the storms this afternoon, abundant
sunshine will allow for temps to climb quickly into the upper
80s/lower 90s, especially across the Tri-State into N-cntrl KY.
In these areas, the combination of temps in the lower 90s and
dewpoints around 70 degrees will allow for heat index values to
get very close to, if not exceed, 100 degrees. There is,
however, enough uncertainty as it relates to the timing of
storms/clouds coming in from the NW, that did not yet have the
confidence to pull the trigger on a Heat Advisory for these
areas. But it will be close.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
While models are showing variable solutions for convective
activity during this time, in general have a decreasing trend in
convection at the start of the short term. There will then be
the potential for additional development of storms overnight as
well. Heading into the day on Monday, several models are showing
some convective activity especially across northern portions of
the region. There will be the potential for severe weather
across primarily northern portions of the region for Monday.

It is this chance of convective activity that the decision was
to hold off on any heat headlines for Monday. There is the
potential for a large portion of the region to hit heat advisory
criteria on Monday, however given uncertainty in convection
decided to hold off on issuing an advisory until there is more
agreement in thunderstorm timing and placement.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front will approach from the northwest through the day on
Tuesday. Highs on Tuesday will range from the upper 80s in the
northwest to the mid 90s across our southeast with heat indices of
100 degrees or so possible in the afternoon. As we destabilize
through the day and the front approaches, expect an increasing
chance for showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon,
especially across our northwest.

There are still some timing differences with the front, but it
should slowly sag southeast across our area Tuesday night into
Wednesday. With good moisture advection ahead of the front, expect
fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms to push slowly south
across our area. PWS will climb up in excess of 2 inches along and
ahead of the front and with some training possible, there will be
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns.
Deep layer shear will also slowly increase along and ahead of the
front so a few strong to severe storms will also be possible with
damaging wind the primary threat.

A drier and cooler airmass will settle in behind the front through
the remainder of the week. Temperatures will be a few degrees below
normal Thursday and Friday with daytime highs in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Temperatures will moderate a bit heading into the weekend
with highs on Saturday in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main item of interest for the TAF period will be timing out a
largely-cohesive line of TSRA through the local sites within the
first 2-4 hours of the period. The line is likely to wane a bit
in coverage/intensity toward 21z or so with southeast extent,
with higher uncertainty regarding gusty wind intensity for I-71
sites of KCMH/KLCK/KILN/KCVG/KLUK. Some amendments will
eventually be needed, particularly to the VSBYs and wind gusts
as the signal becomes a bit more uncertain for each individual
site, but do think that the greatest potential for brief 40+ kt
winds will be for KDAY/KCMH/KLCK between about 18z-21z.

The TSRA activity may last only an hour or so for any single
location before quickly coming to an end by 00z. There are quite
a few uncertainties in how things may unfold thereafter,
particularly as it relates to the overnight period. There are
some indications for another (much weaker) SHRA/TSRA complex to
move in after 06z through daybreak, waning with eastward extent
late in the night. So have added in a VCSH to account for this
potential, but confidence is rather low in its occurrence
locally at all.

VFR conditions will prevail (with quite a bit of lingering
midlevel clouds expected), aside from some patchy BR if clouds
are able to briefly clear at times during the night. Otherwise,
expect some more expansive VFR Cu toward the end of the period,
with some TSRA again possible within a W-E oriented axis near
I-70 very late in the period. SW winds around 10-12kts, with
gusts around 15-18kts, are expected prior to storm arrival this
afternoon. Light SW winds around 5-10kts are expected tonight
into the day Monday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...KC