450
FXUS61 KILN 120211
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1011 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving disturbance will bring the chance for some showers
and storms to parts of the area through Friday. Saturday will
be mainly dry, however another system will bring a return of
shower and thunderstorm chances to the region for Sunday into
early next week. Warmer and more humid air will return to the
Ohio Valley late this weekend through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Evening update...
Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorm activity continues
across portions of the tri-state and southwest Ohio. PoPs and
temperatures were adjusted to current surface observations and
radar trends. Given the upper level trough and moisture across
along and west of I-75, maintained a slight chance PoP through
the overnight despite the cold-pool air mass currently in place
over the region. Coverage will continue to decrease the rest of
the evening, but there will likely be a few showers/isolated
downpours through the overnight.


Previous discussion...
Amidst abundant sunshine, interrupted only by some SCT Cu, temps
have climbed into the mid/upper 80s for most of the area this
afternoon.

The main item of interest for the near term period is going to
be the approach of a slow-moving midlevel disturbance that will
pivot towards the area through tonight. Amidst sufficient
moisture in the LLs, there will be enough forcing for some
ISO/SCT SHRA, with perhaps a rumble of thunder, to develop and
slowly migrate E into the wrn half of the ILN FA (especially
EC/SE IN and SW/WC OH) through this evening. Expect this
activity to be very disorganized and transient in nature
(gusting out very quickly), owing to the incredibly weak wind
fields through the column. But there should be just enough
overlap of instby (SBCAPE ~750-1000 J/kg) and weak lift/forcing
to maintain some SCT convection, especially this evening for
locales near and W of the I-75 corridor. This activity could
produce brief heavy downpours and perhaps some brief breezy
conditions, but likely not much else. The activity should
persist well after sunset and may not decrease much in coverage
until after midnight. This being said, will maintain at least a
slight chance PoP near/W of I-75 through the nighttime to
account for the expectation of at least a few SHRA lingering
into the predawn hours.

Lows tonight dip into the lower 60s (central/south-central OH
and NE KY) to the upper 60s near/W of I-75. For areas that
receive any appreciable rain through early in the nighttime and
are able to briefly clear out late, some patchy fog may be
possible given the very stagnant LL environment.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
Redevelopment of SCT disorganized convection is expected by
Friday afternoon as the weak disturbance crawls into nrn IN/NW
OH. On the ern/SE flank of the weak midlevel trof/low, an axis
of better/deeper moisture will develop near the I-75/I-71
corridors by the afternoon once again, serving as a focus for
the SCT SHRA/TSRA activity. Again, expect this activity to be
very disorganized and transient in nature, owing to the
incredibly weak wind fields/shear through the column. Further
to the SE in NE KY and the lower Scioto Valley, coverage of SHRA
will likely be much more limited than for locales further to
the NW.

Although temps will undoubtedly be augmented by
clouds/convective coverage/evolution through the daytime hours,
highs should generally top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s
(warmest temps favored SE of I-71 where the clouds and SHRA will
be more limited in coverage).

Drier conditions should evolve Friday night as lows dip into the
upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid-level short wave interacting with a humid and unstable airmass
may trigger isolated thunderstorms in far western locations on
Saturday. More pronounced short waves tracking across the Great
Lakes could bring a better chance for showers and storms Sunday
through Tuesday. The threat for convective activity increases again
Wednesday when a frontal boundary is forecast to sag into the
unstable airmass entrenched across the Ohio Valley. The front
settles farther south and high pressure builds over the Great Lakes
on Thursday, suggesting diminishing chances for showers and storms.

Hot temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s Saturday will rise into
the 90s in most locations by Monday and Tuesday in the persistent
southerly flow ahead of the boundary. Heat indices over 100 will be
possible Monday and Tuesday. Cold advection associated with the
boundary will allow upper 70s to mid and upper 80s for Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms which developed over portions of
Indiana have slowly moved eastward. While some showers and an
isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out for DAY/ILN/CVG/LUK,
the immediate forecast wrinkle was to time out an outflow
boundary moving through the sites at TAF issuance. Given the
marginal flow most of the day, winds around 10 knots with gusts
near 20 knots are forecast with the passage of the outflow
boundary. Then, winds will become more variable or out of the
east-southeast once again.

A weak disturbance keeps a small potential for additional
festering of convective activity overnight, but this should be
quite isolated.

Some renewed SHRA and ISO TSRA activity is expected again past
15z Friday, with greatest coverage during the afternoon. Winds
will be largely light/VRB at 5kts or less through the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...McGinnis