645
FXUS61 KILN 201457
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1057 AM EDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure extending across the lower Great Lakes will
weaken on Sunday. More humid conditions will develop back into
the region next week in addition to the return of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure will remain across the lower Great Lakes today. A
weak s/wv moving east across Kentucky was triggering some
shower activity which was just clipping our far southeast zones.
Expect this activity to exit to the east by early afternoon.
Otherwise, our far southern area will be on the edge of deeper
moisture. There is an outside possibly of a diurnally driven
shower or storm there, but most should stay just to our south.
Warming trend continues with highs a few degrees above
yesterday, although dew points will still remain relatively low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Short wave dropping out of the upper midwest will pivot east
and approach the area on Sunday. The influence of the surface
high will wane as its center refocuses further north. Expect a
low to mid deck of clouds to spread in from the south while high
clouds advance eastward. Very weak convergence late tonight
could result in some isolated showers near and south of the Ohio
River. Somewhat better chance will occur in that same general
area Sunday afternoon.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs will be
near persistence in the 80s area wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Light southerly slow will slowly begin to increase low-level
moisture to start the period Sunday night into Monday. A weak
upper-level disturbance may bring an increase in mid and high
clouds Sunday night... but with a lack in appreciable
instability, will have a hard time developing any convection.
Slightly increased instability/low-level moisture arrives by
Monday afternoon, so have a good chance of showers/storms during
this time... mostly across the south.

Active weather arrives for the Tuesday through Thursday period.
While most areas should see several rounds of showers and
storms, marginal instability and relatively weak shear should
keep severe chances low. However, will need to watch for heavy
or repeated downpours bringing the threat of localized flooding.

On Tuesday, a stronger shortwave will provide enough forcing to
cause higher coverage of thunderstorms starting during the
afternoon. A stationary boundary will likely lift into the
region as well, causing a continuation of PoPs through
Wednesday.

A following disturbance will arrive on Thursday. This keeps the
active pattern in place with many areas receiving more showers
and storms.

Guidance suggests drier weather beginning on Friday. This
signal is still somewhat uncertain, so will hold onto chance
PoPs.

Temperatures during the period should generally be near to
below normal due to clouds and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will persist. Clouds in the 5-7kft range will be about the
area through much of the period although a ceiling is not likely
to develop until after 00Z. Light northeast winds will back to
northwesterly during the day and then return to northeast
tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...