975
FXUS61 KILN 142228
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
628 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern will be in place through the middle
of the week. Multiple disturbances will move through and then a
cold front will move through Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Warm temperatures will also be in place until the passage of the
cold front. Drier and cooler conditions are expected for the
second half of the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
MCS has moved out of the area with the trailing stratiform
precipitation rapidly diminishing. There is some new development
occurring from Wisconsin into Iowa that will track east
southeast overnight. There is the potential that some of this
activity could get into far northern counties before daybreak.

Temperatures will rebound from rain-cooled readings, but only
slightly as diurnal heating rapidly wanes. Expect reading to
then become nearly steady through the overnight hours in the
lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Heading into the day on Monday, there is some signal for convective
activity, especially across northern portions of the region even
during the morning hours. However, once again, the best
potential for strong to severe storms is likely to be focused
later in the day as /yet another/ MCS likely approaches from the
W late in the evening (perhaps even lingering into the
overnight). Again, the primary threat with these storms will be
strong to damaging winds, especially near/W of I-71, with less
severity/coverage near/E of I-71.

With the potential for more convective activity, the decision
was made to hold off on any heat headlines for Monday, even with
a *strong* signal that a large portion of the region to hit
heat advisory criteria on Monday. Do expect that a Heat Advisory
will eventually be needed/warranted (especially near/S of
I-70), but given uncertainties in storm/cloud evolution at this
point, especially as it relates to spatial coverage, decided to
hold off for now. But... if storms hold off mainly until the
evening as some guidance suggests, heat will be the main story
for the daytime period. Highs in the lower/mid 90s along with
dewpoints in the lower 70s will likely allow for heat index
values in the lower 100s for many areas near/S of I-70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front will push south through the County Warning Area late
Tuesday and Wednesday. Deep moisture ahead of the front, the slow-
moving nature of the boundary, as well as strong instability in the
latest guidance provide an ample signal for the threat of heavy
rain/localized flooding. In addition, strong to severe storms are
also possible.

Cooler air follows behind the front with precipitation tailing off
north to south on Wednesday. Beyond this, dry surface high pressure
slowly builds in across the Great Lakes through the rest of the
period with near to below normal temperatures and little to no
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
There are quite a few uncertainties in how things may unfold
overnight. There are some indications for another (much weaker)
SHRA/TSRA complex to move in after 06z through daybreak, waning
with eastward extent late in the night. So have added in a VCSH
to account for this potential, but confidence is rather low in
its occurrence locally at all.

VFR conditions will prevail (with quite a bit of lingering
midlevel clouds expected), aside from some patchy BR if clouds
are able to briefly clear at times during the night. Otherwise,
expect some more expansive VFR Cu toward the end of the period,
with some TSRA again possible within a W-E oriented axis near
I-70 very late in the period. SW winds around 10-12kts, with
gusts around 15-18kts, are expected prior to storm arrival this
afternoon. Light SW winds around 5-10kts are expected tonight
into the day Monday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KC