175
FXUS62 KILM 122003
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
403 PM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front stalled nearby to the west will keep the weather
unsettled through Saturday. The weather will then turn quite hot
again for most of next week with diminishing rain chances and
coverage.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A stalled frontal boundary was located just west of the CWA at
present with the the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms
near this boundary. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
were developing over land and streaming in from the Atlantic amidst
warm advection of moderately unstable air with minimal capping
aloft. Lifting over a remnant cold pool seems to be driving
development over the middle of our CWA while microscale confluence
zones and perhaps weak mid-level impulses are helping to drive
activity offshore. The front is expected to drift eastward tonight
and position itself just west of the Cape Fear area by late tonight.
Activity should tend to fall apart going into this evening across
the Pee Dee region as heating stops and earlier storms stabilize the
air mass. Further south and east, from the Grand Strand
northeastward through the Cape Fear region, scattered showers and
thunderstorms should continue to spread in from the ocean through
much or all of the night and we may see a focused corridor of heavy
showers and storms develop near and east of the front late tonight
into tomorrow morning. Locally very heavy rainfall remains possible
with any shower or storm and isolated flash flooding may take place
where these train over the same location for a couple hours.

Temperatures currently vary widely across the area due to the
convection, but overnight lows should fall into the mid-upper 70s.
Mist and low clouds are expected to develop across the interior Pee
Dee, especially if cloud cover thins as expected. Daytime highs
tomorrow will be modulated by convection, but it appears low 90s in
the Pee Dee region and mid-upper 80s in the Cape Fear region are
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM/SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The short term will be characterized by the departure of the deep
slug of coastal moisture that has been in place for the last few
days. The frontal boundary will still be hanging out very close to
the western part of the CWA albeit in a much weakened state. There
will still likely be numerous outflow and differential heating
boundaries just about everywhere so POPs 40-50 percent mainly
during peak heating. A Heat Advisory will be needed Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday and Tuesday will bring a lull in rain chances and coverage as
mid level ridging and the heat it brings dominate the forecast. A
Heat Advisory will be needed both days. As the mid level ridge
weakens slightly on Wednesday rain chances/coverage may return to
near normal values but the heat will remain and expect a fourth
consecutive Heat Advisory. Rain chances could increase Thursday and
Friday and the heat may abate to sub-advisory levels as a front
approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Confidence is lower than normal for the first 24 hours, but
predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the remainder
of the afternoon and this evening with transient MVFR cigs at
times or even brief IFR vis beneath heavy showers and storms.
Additional clusters of showers and isolated storms are
developing over land and approaching from the south and these
may impact the terminals directly through this afternoon, but
again, their impacts should be short-lived. Tonight, excess
moisture and light or calm winds brings a heightened risk for
MVFR mist and IFR to LIFR cigs, particularly inland, where
convection should dissipate and eventually yield some clearing.
Near the coast, showers and isolated storms should remain
possible through the night, but questions remain as to whether a
focused band can organize which would bring longer duration
impacts to any one terminal. Otherwise, winds should remain
elevated and thus preclude MVFR mist from developing. Shower and
storms chances look to remain nearer to the coast tomorrow
morning, continuing the transient MVFR to IFR restriction risk,
while VFR conditions are expected at inland terminals.

Extended Outlook... Brief MVFR to IFR restrictions remain
possible in heavy showers and storms on Saturday before high
pressure brings a reduction in the shower/storm risk late in the
day. For Saturday night onward, VFR should dominate outside of
early morning fog/low cigs.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday... The pressure gradient between a stalled front
over land and offshore Bermuda high pressure which has resulted in
breezy south winds of around 15-20 kts today is expected to weaken
tonight, but will keep a generally southerly flow in place through
the period. Speeds should subside to around 10-15 kts tonight and
remain in that range tomorrow, with gusts up to 20 kts. Wave heights
will gradually subside below SCA levels (6 ft) tonight and continue
falling to 3-4 ft by late tomorrow. The main contributing wave group
this evening through tonight is a southeasterly 7-8 sec swell while
a 2-3 ft southerly wind wave at around 6 sec is forecast to develop
around Cape Fear tomorrow.

Saturday night through Wednesday... Frontal boundary and its
associated surface trough stalled inland at the start of the period.
This paired with Bermuda High to bring SW winds in the 10-15kt
range with a few gusts to 20. Swell energy will remain offshore for
the most part. The front will gradually wash out but the trough will
remain as will the offshore ridge. As is so often the case in July
winds and seas will not deviate much at all.


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
SC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ017-024-033-054-
     058-059.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...ABW
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...ABW
MARINE...ILM