891
FXUS63 KICT 101738
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1238 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated storms possible for this afternoon/evening in
  central Kansas

- A few storms could affect southeast Kansas Thursday afternoon

- Heat will begin to build over the region for Friday and extend
  into next week. Heat indices above 100 degrees are likely for
  most locations this weekend through Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave
over eastern South Dakota moving southward. Cooler mid level
temperatures in conjunction with this upper level wave will
give way to diurnally driven showers/storms over eastern
Nebraska and Iowa into northern Missouri today. We could see
some isolated showers/storms from this wave bubble up over
central Kansas late this afternoon and spread southward tonight,
as models show a weak signal of warm air advection across a mid
level baroclinic zone with-in increasing precipitable water
axis. The combination of relatively cool mid level temperatures
and daytime heating of higher precipitable water axis over
southeast Kansas could give way bubbling isolated showers/storms
again.

The heat is expected to build over the region for Friday into
next week, as models continue to show upper level high pressure
center migrating slowly eastward across the Rockies this period.
This will cause the heat dome to spread eastward into Kansas
with heat indices likely topping 100 degrees for most locations
Saturday-Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid
period. Light and variable winds should tend to become light
southerly ahead of a weak surface trough across southern Kansas
turn light easterly by early Thursday morning along the I-70
corridor as the trough settles briefly south across northern
Kansas. Some elevated showers are possible again by early
Thursday morning from mid-level cloud bases, mainly east of
I-135.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...KED