542
FXUS63 KICT 190603
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
103 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rain chances are expected Friday through Tuesday;
although storm coverage is likely to be hit-to-miss across the area.

- Temperatures are expected to be near or below average for this
time of year over the next 5-7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The post-frontal regime remains well in place across Kansas this
afternoon with temperatures in the upper 80s and dewpoints in the
upper 50s and low 60s. Taking a look water vapor satellite early
this afternoon, a strong upper ridge remains steadfast over the Four
Corners region with longwave troughing across the eastern half of
the CONUS. This keeps the central plains solidly in a northwesterly
flow regime, and this pattern is likely to stay in place over the
next week or so. This is likely to keep temperatures on the milder
side over the next 5-7 days, and periodic rain chances remain in the
forecast as ripples in the upper flow skate over the central plains
this weekend and early next week.

The area`s first rain chances during the forecast period are
on Friday morning. A mid-level baroclinic zone is progged to be
located across central Kansas and southern Nebraska, and subtle
WAA with just enough instability should be enough to support at
least isolated showers and storms along and west of US-81
Friday morning. By midday Friday, this activity is expected to
wane, and in lieu of an approaching cold front, afternoon
temperatures will be close to average for this time of year
(generally in the low 90s). The greatest coverage in
thunderstorms across the region Friday afternoon and evening
will likely across western and central Nebraska. A somewhat
organized MCS is likely to progress into northwest and north-
central Kansas by Friday night where it likely start to
struggle given the lack of instability and a weak (essentially
non-existent) LLJ across much of Kansas. While PoPs have been
held at 50% for much of central Kansas late Friday night into
early Saturday morning, its possible storm coverage could be a
bit more sparse. As the front passes through the area Saturday
morning, some post frontal showers and storms cannot be ruled
out, and additional thunderstorm development along the frontal
boundary appears possible Saturday afternoon and night.

By Saturday night, an upper low will gradually slide into the
central plains out of the midwest. With this feature set to spin
over the central plains during the latter part of the weekend
and into the beginning of next week, additional rain chances
are possible Sunday through Tuesday. Although, the coverage in
storms are likely to be hit-or-miss across the area. Towards
the end of the forecast period, this upper low is expected to
open up and depart the central plains. As such, a gradual
warming trends appears likely going into the middle to latter
part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout the period.

South and southeast winds will remain light, with a subtle
diurnal increase to 12-15kts this afternoon. Otherwise the main
aviation concerns will revolve around chances for isolated
showers and storms. The first chance (15% chance) this morning
near daybreak west of a KSLN to KHUT line and the second chance
(30-40% chance) late evening through end of the TAF period
potentially affecting KRSL to KGBD.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...KMB