Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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048 FXUS64 KHUN 141707 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 1207 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Rest of Today) Issued at 903 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Another hot and moist day is forecast as we remain on the NW periphery of surface high pressure centered to our southeast. Currently, cloud cover riding the along the border of high pressure is propagating NE through the area. Diurnal heating will aid to erode this, yet lingering clouds may have a negative impact on temps and shower/storm chances later in the afternoon. High temps are forecast to rise into the mid to high 90s. With dewpoints likely mixing down to the mid to high 60s, heat indices will max out around 100 degrees. A low (~20%) chance of diurnal showers and storms will be possible this afternoon with some storms having the potential to become strong. HIRES models indicate steep low level lapse rates and maintain around 1000 J/KG of DCAPE yielding a threat for gusty winds. Without any significant shear, storms will likely be primarily outflow driven with coverage decreasing as the sun set. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Dangerous heat is forecast through mid week as highs continue to climb into the upper 90s in most locations with low chances (10% or less) of reaching 100 degrees. Monday through Wednesday, heat indices are forecast to near or exceed Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) in portions of northwestern AL (primarily west of I-65). Therefore, this will have to be closely monitored for potential product issuance in future updates. Otherwise, sfc high pressure over the southeastern U.S. will be maintained through the early part of the week with diurnal heating allowing low-medium chances (30-40%) of showers/storms. A trough is forecast to move into the TN Valley, forcing sfc high pressure eastward and rain chances to increase ahead of the subsequent front on Wednesday into Thursday. During this time, medium-high chances of showers/storms (60-80%) will be possible. Sufficient low level lapse rates as well as instability and high PWATs (2-2.1", nearing or meeting the 90th percentile per BMX sounding climatology) will allow any stronger storms that form to be capable of producing lightning, moderate to heavy rainfall, and gusty winds. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 343 AM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Models are hinting at the aforementioned front stalling to our southeast, continuing to bring rainfall to portions of our area and some relief from the ongoing drought conditions. Due to this, at least a low chance of rain was maintained through the long term period, with higher chances in the afternoon to early evening hours. The front should provide slight relief from the ongoing heat, as well. High temperatures during the long term period are forecast to reach the mid 80s to low 90s with heat indices in the 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to continue for the remainder of the TAF period at both terminals. There is a low chance (20%) for scattered showers and storms this afternoon. Due to low confidence in timing and coverage, this was not included in the TAF. Amendments will be made to the TAF if necessary. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...RAD SHORT TERM....HC LONG TERM....HC AVIATION...RAD