Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL
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588 FXUS64 KHUN 060005 AFDHUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Huntsville AL 705 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... (Tonight) Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Conditions should be mostly settled by tonight. Some lingering mid and upper-level clouds are possible over the Cumberland Plateau earlier tonight. Although, much of the night should be mostly clear, with some Cu. This should allow for temperatures to drop steadily into the low to mid-70s across northern AL. Some cooler pockets in Lincoln, Moore, and Franklin, TN counties may even drop below 70 by day break, with help from the cold front. Winds should also become pretty light and variable by late morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday Night) Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 An upper level trough is currently making its way through the Ohio Valley. This feature is helping to drag a surface front through the TN Valley on Saturday. As this feature moves south, it should help to displace and briefly weaken the upper-level high that has been dominating the weather most of this week. This is expected to help bring us some slightly drier air for both Saturday and Sunday. Afternoon highs should still warm into the 90s, still very warm. The good news, is that any excessive heat risk should remain low as the apparent temperatures are forecasted to feel like the ambient temperature. Winds should also remain fairly light from the north. PoPs should stay low, but a shower or two is possible in SE areas. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 413 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 By Monday, we will be back in a warm sectored airmass with upper ridging centered off the Atlantic Coast and an upper trough making its way through the central Plains and into the Midwest. The upper ridge over the Atlantic looks to remain dominant over a large portion of the Southeast through at least the mid-week period, as the upper trough becomes less amplified as it moves across the Great Lakes and into Canada. This will keep near seasonable temperatures (highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s) in place with daily chances for rain and storms, peaking (40-60%) during the afternoon diurnal heating hours. The track of the eventual remnants of Hurricane Beryl is still pretty uncertain at this time, and low confidence exists regarding whether or not the Tennessee Valley will see any rain from this system or not. For that reason, have stuck with blended guidance for PoPs given that it is at the 6-7 day range which suggest a 30-50% PoP Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s each night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 705 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for the period. Cloud coverage will be on a downward trend overnight with low clouds between 3500-5000 ft early in period becoming FEW-SCT by 06/12z. Any lingering TSRA/SHRA this evening is expected to remain isolated with direct impacts to the terminal unlikely. Winds will remain light at 8 knots or less through 06/20z when NE winds will increase to 7-10 kts, primarily at KHSV through the remainder of the period. && .HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. TN...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Serre SHORT TERM....Serre LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...KG