931
FXUS64 KHGX 130827
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
327 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

Activity down the coast is already starting to develop this morning
and based on current trends, these showers/thunderstorms should con-
tinue to spread north into the rest of the CWA. These elevated rain
chances will persist through much of the day for locations along to
north of the I-10 corridor. For areas south, it could be a warm/hot
late morning to early afternoon in the wake of all this convection.
But still cannot rule out some additional activity with outflows or
the seabreeze late this afternoon. PWs near 2" will help to produce
some heavy downpours with these storms. Otherwise, all these clouds
and rains will help to keep temperatures down today...with highs in
the upper 80s to around 90. Coverage will be on the decrease by the
evening hours with lows tonight in the mid 70s (upper 70s along the
coast).

For tomorrow, not a lot of changes are expected with the pattern as
models continue to indicate that SE TX will remain in that weakness
region of the ridge aloft. While guidance isn`t showing much by way
of embedded shortwaves in this mid/upper flow, conditions do remain
favorable for mainly daytime showers/storms as moisture levels over
the area stays elevated (PWs 2-2.3"). So, will be keeping scattered
POPs in place for Sun, mainly during the day. Highs tomorrow should
range from the upper 80s to lower 90s, depending on where the heav-
ier rains set up. Lows tomorrow night will be in the mid 70s...near
80 along the beaches. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

The upcoming week will be characterized by a largely persistent
synoptic pattern with mid/upper ridging over the Western CONUS
remaining the dominant feature. With broad surface high pressure
over the Eastern Seaboard and little in the way of lee
cyclogenesis over the course of the week, the synoptic pressure
gradient will remain fairly week. This will result in a weak
onshore flow regime, which, despite not accompanied by any
significant forcing, will support the potential development of
isolated thunderstorms each day. Global models show total PW
values in the vicinity of 2.0 in, perhaps rising a bit by the end
of the week given the persistent moisture advection. With
diurnal heating providing a sufficient instability profile,
afternoon storms along the sea/bay breezes will continue to be a
possibility. While any stronger storms may produce an occasional
strong wind gust or heavy downpour, the overall threat for severe
weather and/or flooding remains low.

With midlevel heights creeping slightly upward over the course of
the week as the aforementioned ridge strengthens and shifts to the
east, the growing concern will continue to be heat. Highs will
remain on a generally increasing trend, rising from the lower 90s
on Monday to the mid/upper 90s on Wed/Thu. This, paired with dew
points in the mid/upper 70s, light winds, and scattered cloud
cover, will continue to pose a threat for heat-related illnesses.
Based on local heat index criteria, combined with other parameters
such as the WBGT, Heat Advisories could very well be required by
mid-week. Heat safety precautions will continue to be key.
Overnight lows will continue to sit in the upper 70s/near 80.

A setup for more widespread rainfall arrives on Thursday as a weak
front pushes through the Central Plains and stalls just to our
north. Resulting convection and any subsequent outflows will
provide increased rainfall coverage, though the threat for
flooding/severe weather still remains low.


Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Patchy fog may develop across portions of SE Texas during the
early morning hours of Saturday. Isolated showers begin near the
coast Saturday morning, spreading inland and becoming
thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, then tapering off once
again in the evening.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2024

A fairly benign marine pattern continues through the rest of the
weekend and into next week with high pressure situated to our
east. With the pressure gradient remaining fairly weak, expect a
light southeast wind and seas of 1-3 ft. Daily thunderstorm
chances remain in the forecast, but coverage should remain
isolated in nature. Any stronger storms could produce brief
periods of stronger winds/higher seas.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  89  75  91  75 /  50  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)  89  77  91  76 /  70  20  40  10
Galveston (GLS)  88  81  89  81 /  50   0  30   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Cady